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Technical Analysis Of Nepse (3 - 9 March 2014)

  2 min 47 sec to read

 
Market Trend
After 4 weeks of continued positive gains, Nepse ended this week on a lower note. Declining three of the four trading days, the stock index decreased by 20.05 (-2.43%) to end at 805.65 points the last week. One of the major reasons for the recent downtrend can be attributed to news about the central bank tightening margin lending so as to divert loans into productive sectors. Due to this decrease, Nepse also fell below its immediate support level of 806.82 points which indicates a bearish sentiment in the near term. Though the psychological support level remains at 800.00 points, the next support level is at 769.51 points. However, it is still above its 50-day moving average, which indicates that the market has not entered a bearish trend yet.     
 
RSI
RSI is a form of leading indicator that is believed to be most effective during periods of sideways movement. Such indicators may create numerous buy and sell signals that are useful when the market is not clearly trending upwards or downwards. With the decreasing market, the RSI also fell by 16.90 points to settle at 53.28 levels, which indicated a greater selling pressure in recent times. If RSI maintains at this level within the neutral zone, it would indicate a balanced supply and demand scenario for stocks.  
 
MACD
The MACD is a momentum oscillator formed by using two different types of moving averages, which provides specific buying or selling signals. When a MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is considered to be a positive sign and indicates a time to buy, and vice-versa. On March 04, 2014, the MACD line once again crossed below the Signal line indicating that the overall near term momentum may still be in the downward direction. As of the last trading day of the week, the MACD line and the Signal line ended at 9.72 and 12.32 points respectively, suggesting that the near term moving average is falling at a greater momentum than the longer term moving average.
 
On Balance Volume (OBV)
On Balance Volume is a momentum indicator that relates volume to the current price of index or security. If a price increase is supported by OBV, it confirms an uptrend, whereas if a price decrease is supported by OBV, it confirms a downtrend. In the past week, the OBV indicator has declined at a greater pace when compared to that of Nepse. The recent trend in volume suggests that the market has been in a selling mood this past week.  
 
Market Summary
(March 03 to 06, 2014)
Close (March 06): 805.65
High (March 03): 811.04
Weekly Change: -20.05 (-2.43%)
Daily average Turnover: NPR 298.41 Million
Total Weekly Turnover: NPR 1193.67 Million
Immediate Support: 769.51
Immediate Resistance: 831.86
RSI: 53.28
MACD Line: 9.72
Signal Line: 12.32

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