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Stock Taking November 2012

  3 min 41 sec to read



STOCK TAKING
By Bikram Chitrakar


Market Escalates Ahead of Festivals

Traditionally, the stock market falls a bit before the festival season that mark long holidays. However, the Ashwin rise was pulled by heavy gains in the hydropower and ‘others’ groups.



 
Defying the traditions, the Nepali capital market experienced an increase in the month of Ashwin (mid- September to Mid-November), ahead of the festival of Dashain. Traditionally, the stock market falls a bit before such festivals that mark long holidays. The Ashwin rise was pulled by heavy gains in the hydropower and ‘others’ groups. The benchmark Nepse index accelerated 11.94 points or 2.81% to close at 424.43 while the session’s high was 427.90 on 7th October and the session’s low was 412.49 on 11th September.
 
Among the major influences of the period were Nepal Telecom that is listed under the “others” group and ex-dividend date effect of Chilime Hydropower that is listed under “hydropower” group. Ex-dividend effect was also in the insurance sector and that too helped to move the market higher.
 
One major development in the market during the review period is that the Citizen Investment Trust (CIT) has asked major institutional investors to join hands with Trust and pool their funds so as to play a more effective role of market maker.
 
Performance by Sector
 
During the review period, the hydropower sector added double digits (88.26 points) followed by 88.10 points increase in the others sector to reach at 899.83 and 763.65 points respectively. Insurance sub-index increased 56.07 points or 7.93% to rest at 706.98. Also the hotels and trading sectors increased during the period. Hotels sector went up 19.99 points or 3.57% to 560.12 while trading sector registered the growth of 11.38 points to rest at 174.21. However, banking, development banks and manufacturing sectors plummeted. While manufacturing sector lost 41.33 points or 5.73% to settle at 721.33, the banking sector descended 7 points or 1.97% to 355.41 and the development bank skid 6.27 points or 2.60% to close at 240.8.
 
Sensitive index that measured the performance of 133 blue chips scrip at the secondary market, surged 4.43 points or 4.06% to 109.03 while, the float index calculated on the basis of real transaction downhill 0.79 points or 2.60% to 30.33. Total of Rs. 1,886,374,657 was realized as the turnover during the review period from 7,111,778 units of shares traded through 31,609 transactions.
 
The accompanying figure illustrates sector-wise distribution based on total volume of trade. Banking sector that accounts for the heaviest volume of trade in exchange registered a share of 47.88% of the total trade. Hydropower sector grabbed 20.71% while insurance sector accounted for 15.66% of the trade and rest of the sectors covered the remaining portion.
 
Technically, the Simple Moving Average (SMA) is outcast as both 30 days SMA and 200 days SMA are dominated by Nepse index. However correction at this level can be expected due to the seasonal cyclical trend.

Chitrakar is a Stock Analyst with Jamb Technologies Pvt Ltd.

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