May 4: The government has made an initial projection of the economic growth at 0.77 percent for the fiscal year 2015/16. The Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) in its National Account Estimate Report published on Tuesday estimated the growth rate which has narrowly avoided entering into a negative territory in the current FY. As per the CBS, the growth projection is lowest in the last 14 years. The nation had witnessed economic growth of 0.16 percent during the FY 2001-02 due to the spiralling arm conflict along with Royal Massacre and unfavourable weather.

The Bureau made the depressed growth projection due to the last year’s devastating earthquake, six months long Tarai unrest and decrease in production of rice, wheat and barley due to unfavourable weather. Earlier, the government had estimated economic growth of 6 percent in the budget presentation of the current FY. Meanwhile the Finance Ministry, in its White Paper forecasted the growth rate at 2 percent while the strikes in Terai and the Indian blockade were at full swing. CBS has presented the projection based on various indicators including consumption, savings and investments.

The bureau has estimated 32.28 percent contribution from primary sector that includes agriculture and forest, fishery and mining and quarrying to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  Although the contribution of agriculture and forestry is estimated to be 31.19 percent, CBS has estimated its annual growth rate at 1.14 percent. Similarly, the fishery sector is expected to grow by 11.76 percent annually while its contribution to GDP has been logged at o.5 percent. Meanwhile, CBD has estimated increase in annual growth rates of transportation, communication and storage, financial intermediation, real estate and commercial services along with education and health sector.

Similarly, the annual growth rate of mining and quarrying and industries in GDP is forecasted to decrease by 6.54 percent and 9.86 percent respectively. Likewise, the annual growth of electricity, cooking gas and water, construction sector, wholesale and retail, hotel and restaurants has decreased as well. Meanwhile, the contribution of secondary sectors such as construction, industries and electricity, cooking gas and water has been projected to be 13.43 percent.  At the same time, the bureau has estimated 59.29 percent contribution of the third sector comprising service and retail business, hotel and restaurant, transportation, communication and storage and commercial services.

Similarly, the bureau informed that the revised the economic growth for FY 2014/15 at 2.32 percent.

Per Capita Income of Nepali Rs 80,900

The per capita income of Nepali has increased to Rs 80,921 from last year’s 77,079. The per capita income has increased by Rs 3,842 in current FY in compare to last FY. In US Dollar terms, per capita income has declined by USD 9 to USD 766. Meanwhile, it has revised the per capita income AT 775 USD  for the last FY.

Size of GDP Rs 2.24 trillion

CBS has predicted the size of the country’s GDP at Rs 2.24 trillion in current FY. The bureau has revised the size at Rs 2.12 trillion during the last FY. “Nepali economy has been hit hard by the last year’s devastating earthquake followed by border blockade. Therefore, the size of the economy structure will not significantly change in the current FY,” says Suman Aryal Director General of CBS.