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ADB Projects 3.8 Pc GDP Growth

  2 min 52 sec to read

Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected Nepal’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the current fiscal year to remain at 3.8 per cent. This is less than the five years average of 4 per cent.
 
According to ADB’s Asian Development Outlook 2011,the main reasons for Nepal’s slower economic growth are the deceleration in remittance inflow as well as commercial banks’ excessive lending to real estate sector and reduced liquidity in the banking system that led to record high inter-bank borrowing rates.
 
Agriculture is expected to grow by 4 per cent in fiscal year 2011 which is 1.3 per cent higher than that of 2010. According to ADB, the growth is largely due to a weather-induced recovery in the output of key summer crops.
 
The Outlook says, “The tightening fiscal year 2011 monetary policy of Nepal Rastra Bank, the central bank, aimed at stabilising the real estate market, will further curtail services expansion, to 4.5 per cent growth in fiscal year 2011, down from 6 per cent in 2010.”
 
It further says, “A slowdown in construction activity and higher fuel costs will limit industry’s growth to 1 per cent in 2011, compared with 3.3 per cent a year earlier.”
 
However the GDP growth is expected to improve modestly to 4 per cent in fiscal year 2012 if the normal weather conditions persist.
 
 â€œA pickup in tourism related activities driven by Nepal Tourism Year 2011 campaign should raise services growth to 5.5 per cent,” ADB expects.
 
The ADB forecasted the growth of 1.5 per cent in construction activity after slight relaxation by NRB in its directives to the banks.
 

The average inflation is expected to be 10 per cent. High food and oil prices and domestic distortions like power cuts will continue to exert upward pressure on the prices, says the ADB. With likely moderation in Indian prices and the government’s measures to prohibit transport syndicates’ restrictive practices, 8 per cent average inflation is expected in 2012, according to ADB.

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