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Investors Run Away From Gold In 2013

  3 min 14 sec to read

 
--By TC Correspondent
 
Gold, once the much-loved asset turned the most unloved investment tool in 2013 as investors flee from its long-time save haven appeal. This, year the yellow metal took a plunge of nearly 30 per cent, marking the biggest yearly decline since 1981. After 12 years of straight gains, the international bullion market witnessed an unexpected crash in mid-April when gold prices dropped by more than USD 200 in just two days of trading - from USD 1,525/oz to USD 1,321/oz. Triggered by the news that debt-stricken Cyprus is selling some of its reserve to manage its financial bailout, bullion prices tumbled as panic selling hit values of physical as well as paper gold. This was followed by another sharp decline in June when gold price fell to a three-year low of USD 1,180/oz. 
 
Outflows from gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have hit a record this year. SPDR Gold Trust — the world’s largest gold ETF has seen its holdings reduce by 546 tonnes — down 40 per cent. Jewellery demand too took a knock. In the September quarter, the World Gold Council reported that global jewellery demand fell 3 per cent to 474.9 tonnes. Steep decline of demand in India, the world’s second largest gold consumer contributed to this. This year, Indian government tightened gold imports to curb rising trade deficit and current account deficit which are seen as major areas of concern to dampen the already sluggish economic growth of 
the country. 
 
Reasons for Gold Price Decline
Gold reached to its all-time high (USD 1920/oz) in September 2011, when Standard & Poor’s (S & P) downgraded the ‘AAA’ credit rating of United States by one notch to ‘AA+’ amid the budget showdown in the US Congress. The expanding Eurozone debt crisis, slowdown in developing countries, fears of inflation and worries of global recession largely helped gold prices to climb up. However, as the global economic recovery unwinds at a faster pace, interest of investors began a shift towards stocks. 
 
US equities made a strong come back this year. Improving job market conditions pick up in the manufacturing sector, rising property prices and increased consumer confidence, built optimism about equity investments. The dollar too strengthened.
 
The dollar index which measures performance of the greenback against six major currencies moved up to 81.9 by February from 79.6 at the beginning of the year. This made global funds parked in emerging markets to move back to US equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index hit a five-year high in February. So, gold lost its mojo. The metal dropped below the USD 1,600/oz mark in February, touching a low of USD 1,575/oz. After the June low, gold market witnessed relative stability, supported by physical buying in China and bets that the Federal Reserve may delay tapering. But gold has been unable to rise significantly as improving US economy dulled its demand. The final blow came with the Fed announcing beginning of the taper on December 18. On December 19, gold hit a low of $1,187.4/ounce — a three-year low.
 
The year ahead
Gold prices can edge little higher in 2014, if there is renewed demand from emerging markets and gold import curbs are lifted in India. But, in the first half, prices may mostly remain weak and see a range-bound movement unless there is a surprise from inflation numbers. If outflows from gold ETFs continue, and physical demand for the metal remains weak, it will be negative for gold and prices can move further down.

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