The International Labour Organization (ILO) has warned that the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdown imposed by the government has put 3.7 million jobs at risk. In its latest report titled ‘Covid-19 Labour Market Impact in Nepal’, the UN agency the abrupt halt in domestic and international economic activities continue to wreak havoc on livelihood of millions of Nepali workers. “There are nearly 3.7 million workers earning their livelihoods in the sectors deemed most at risk to experience a significant (medium to high) reduction in economic output as a result of the Covid-19 crisis,” the report reads. According to ILO, nearly four in every five workers most vulnerable to disruption are in the construction, manufacturing and trade sectors. ILO’s estimates that between 1.6 and 2.0 million jobs are likely to be disrupted in Nepal in the current crisis, either with complete job loss or reduced working hours and wages.

Based on the higher-impact scenario, the jobs disrupted includes nearly 780,000 workers in wholesale and retail trade, 446,000 in manufacturing, 404,000 in construction, 211,000 in transport and 62,000 in accommodation and food service activities and 83,000 in other services, real estate and administrative activities, according to the report. ILO said that in 2018, the tourism sector employed 573,000 workers (8 per cent of total employment) and accounted for 26 per cent of total exports. “Three-quarters of workers in the tourism sector are in informal jobs, leaving them with no protection and no income as the sector has ground to a halt,” the report reads.

According to ILO, workers in informal sectors are also susceptible to Covid-19 crisis. “Majority of workers in all sectors are in informal employment, including the sectors expected to face the highest degree of disruption: construction (97 per cent), trade (74 per cent) and manufacturing (84 per cent),” said ILO. The report mentioned that approximately 5.7 million or 80.8 per cent of workers in Nepal have informal jobs and they lack the basic benefits usually provided by a formal job, including social protection coverage. “If they stop working due to economic downturn, sickness, or quarantine, they have no state-funded safety net,” the report said.  Similarly, another category of precarious workers are home-based workers, according to the report. “There are approximately 1.4 million home based workers in Nepal – nearly all women – producing goods for export. With global supply blocked due to the pandemic, also this source of livelihoods is at risk,” said ILO.

The ILO study has found that employment of men in Nepal is at more risk than women employment. “Within the at-risk sectors, the female share of employment is low in many of the higher-risk sectors like construction and manufacturing. As a result, the share of men’s employment at risk of disruption due to Covid-19 is higher than women’s,” the report said.

In total, 631,000 female jobs (24.3 per cent of the 2018 female workforce) are estimated as at risk in the higher impact scenario, compared to 1.3 million jobs for men (also 30.3 per cent of the 2018 male workforce), according to the report.

Business community members, however, disagree with the numbers presented by ILO. “It is true that the COvid-19 crisis has put employment in all sectors in Nepal at risk. Nevertheless, it is difficult to exact number at the moment,” said Pashupati Murarka, past president of Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI). According to him, industrial enterprises are finding themselves in between a rock and a hard place as they have to adopt austerity measures and save employment of workers at the same time. “The government which has not yet taken any concrete decision to allow industrial enterprises to resume their activities is asking us to pay salaries of workers,” said Murarka.

Binod Shrestha, president of General Federation of Nepalese Trade Unions (GEFONT) also said that the actual data about job losses in Nepal due to Covid-19 crisis is yet to come. “The true picture of job market in Nepal will emerge after the lockdown is lifted,” he mentioned.