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			'content' => '<p>
	<em>Indian Cinema has turned a hundred years. And as it grew in shape, size, craft, value and visibility globally, it had love-hate relations in the South Asian region, whether in Nepal, Pakistan and Bangladesh. How have the relations of Bollywood with people and governments in South Asia evolved?</em></p>
<p>
	<strong>The 100 Years and Journey So Far</strong></p>
<p>
	Indian Cinema, not Bollywood, has completed a hundred years in May 2013, considering the release of the Marathi classic Raja Harischandra by father of Indian cinema, Dada Saheb Phalke, in May 1913 as the inception of Indian Cinema. Though the global face of Indian Cinema is surely Bollywood, the large-scale Hindi films from Mumbai, there are much more to the art and craft of cinema from India, specially the films in Malayalam, Bengali, Marathi, Tamil and Telugu languages. The non-Hindi films from India are equal in number and value of business to the Hindi films, all totaling some 1200 films in 2012 bringing in some USD 3.6 billion revenue. This is more than double the number of films produced by Hollywood though the revenue is more than a trillion dollars in Hollywood. The spread of the Indian cinema industry’s oeuvre is amazing. The films are shown in some 100 overseas markets, catalyzing the growth of trans-national creative networks, collaborations. Big studios Columbia, Disney and 20th Century Fox are now striking co-production deals with Indian companies.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Bollywood &amp; Pakistan:</strong></p>
<p>
	In the South Asian markets, especially in Pakistan and Bangladesh, Indian cinema was officially banned for long. However, that did not help the local entertainment industry and Indian cinema found pirated ways into the houses of people wanting the same.</p>
<p>
	The 1960s marked the high point of Pakistan’s film industry, when Abbot Road in Lahore filled with smart art-deco cinemas playing the latest colour offerings to packed houses. Today, the heart of movieland is dead. The 1998 hit Choorian briefly revived the industry. Its tale of a city boy who falls in love with a country girl promised to another man, was first dismissed by critics as derivate, but it proved a huge hit with movie audience who loved the way it pinched a proven Bollywood formula.</p>
<p>
	Pakistan had banned Indian films after going to war with its neighbor in 1965 but over the past few years, as relations between the nuclear-armed rivals have improved, authorities have been allowing a trickle of Indian films to be shown in cinemas. That has delighted movie fans and cinema operators but Pakistani film producers fear a flood of Indian films could mean the end of the local film industry.</p>
<p>
	However, in recent years some of Pakistan’s hottest talent has moved to Mumbai. Ali Zafar, one of the country’s biggest pop stars, made his Bollywood debut this year in Tere Bin Laden. Beena Malik, singers Nusrat Fateh Ali and Rahat Fateh Ali and many others are all too known. Add in a stagnating economy and criticism of Lollywood’s bawdy movies by Islamic groups, cinema in neighbouring India seems an attractive destination for young stars. Nilofar Bakhtiar, who chairs the Pakistan Senate’s standing committee on culture and tourism, suggested strengthening ties with Bollywood to help revive Lollywood’s fortunes, including film training opportunities. But the suggestion would lead to a faster exodus of talent to India, according to Qaisar Sanaullah Khan, secretary of the Pakistan Cinema Owners’ Association.</p>
<p>
	For long, competition from Bollywood fare as well as the mediocrity of Pakistani films means that many Pakistanis opt to stay at home and watch Indian movies on pirated DVDs. Cinemas have been struggling for years and many operators have given up and sold off their premises which have been converted into shopping centers or offices. From about 750 cinemas nationwide in the 1970s, there are now 300. But Indian films are breathing life back into Pakistani cinemas. Cinema operators are cashing in on the revival of interest in the cinema the Indian films have generated. Before screenings of Indian films began, a cinema ticket in Karachi cost less than 100 rupees. Now it is 150 rupees or more. Pakistani film distributors also welcome the revival of cinemas.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Bollywood &amp; Bangladesh:</strong></p>
<p>
	It’s official. After being exiled for 39 long years since 1972, Indian films were set to release in Bangladesh since late 2010. It’s no secret that Bollywood films are immensely popular across the border in Pakistan and Nepal, and Tamil films in Sri Lanka. However, thanks to protectionist measures by the Bangladesh government, Indian films have long been banned there. The rationale behind the ban that came into effect in 1972 after India won independence for them from Pakistan was to protect the fledgling Bangladeshi film industry. In theory, it was not a bad idea.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	But the lawmakers forgot one small thing. In the information age, getting access to Indian films through illegal means is extremely easy. And the Bangladesh audience prefers Indian films, as the high number of shops selling illegal DVDs and the small number of cinemas in Dhaka testify.</p>
<p>
	In January 2010, Bangladesh decided to allow the release of Indian films but this happy period lasted only six months as aggrieved local filmmakers cried foul and appealed against the decision. Thus, Indian films were banned again. Now, cinema owners, fed up with the lack of local interest in local fare, appealed to the court to allow Indian film imports and the courts have agreed, leading to official Bollywood releases in Bangladesh since September 2011.</p>
<p>
	First of all, in the age of globalization and free sky we cannot keep resisting foreign culture to creep into our society. The popularity of Hindi cinema is immense not only in Bangladesh but also across the world. And people around the world can easily get access to the cable and satellite television. Moreover, DVD and free download of movies from the internet have made it even easier for the middle and upper class viewers to enjoy Hindi or English movie at will. These alternatives do not include the marginal class of the society. The irony is the middle-class in the country rarely go to cinema hall to watch Bengali cinema or keep themselves updated about news and views of Dhaliwood. It is strongly believed that the target population of Bengali cinema is no other than the rickshaw pullers, garments workers and other wage labourers. The quality of Bangladesh cinema is quite understandable in terms of its technical aspects and storyline, which are not comparable with any other country’s cinema such as Indian, or even Pakistan and Nepal.</p>
<p>
	&nbsp;One can easily ask why the ‘cinema protectors’ do not protest against English cinema or Hindi cinema shown on satellite TV or in the internet. The reason is quite obvious. It is either their family members who are direct consumers of those sources or they have no hand to regulate the sky. But, they only can regulate the taste and fate of the marginal people and cinema halls as they wish.</p>
<p>
	Also, the concept of ‘culture’ is not so easy to understand what we perceive it to be. It has different facets and dimensions which can encompass time and space and influence people in another society. We use the concept ‘culture’ without much thought and conceptualize it which is why the concept remains a vague one in academia and even in the socio-political sphere. Dhaliwood producers and exhibitors are now understanding that if their own cinema quality falls and cannot evoke the audience to the cinema hall what will happen to some 800 cinema halls that still survive across the country?</p>
<p>
	<strong>Bollywood &amp; Nepal:</strong></p>
<p>
	The making of Nepali films is said to have begun with D.B. Pariyar’s Satya Harishchandra, which was the first Nepali-language film to be shot. It was produced from Kolkata, India, and was released on September 14, 1951. Aama (meaning mother) was the first film produced in Nepal and was released on October 7, 1964. It was produced by the Information Department of His Majesty’s Government of Nepal. The first film to be produced under a private banner was Maitighar, which was released at the end of 1966 by Sumonanjali Films Pvt. Ltd. Although it was a Nepali movie, it had many Indians contributing toward its making. The Nepal government established the Royal Nepal Film Corporation in 1971. Mann Ko Bandh was the first film produced by the corporation. It was followed by Kumari (the first Eastman color Nepali film) in 1978, Sindoor in 1980, and Jeevan Rekha in a series. Their success opened up the avenue for private parties to enter into filmmaking as an industrial endeavor.</p>
<p>
	In 1990, Nepal witnessed important political change. The people’s movement brought the monarchy to its knees and democracy was restored. The society started to become open and vibrant. This had an important consequence for the fledgling film industry: It began to grow rapidly or even to “bloat”. There was an unprecedented growth in the number of productions. Within three years, some 140 films were made. Distribution started to develop. Market share in the existing market increased and the market itself expanded. Cinema halls increased to more than 300. Nepali filmmakers became optimistic of displacing Hindi films, which had dominated the Nepali market earlier.</p>
<p>
	The start of the Maoist revolution in Nepal in the mid-1990s was the beginning of the downfall of the domestic film industry. There was an unwritten ban on Hindi films too for quite some time. In the period of war and conflict, a very small number of films were made, and audience numbers fell sharply. It resulted in lower budgets and even lower performances, which resulted in even smaller audiences. In the later years of the conflict, the production and release of Nepali films had almost come to a standstill. Many actors and filmmakers left the country in search for work abroad.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Also, during the 1990s, some filmmakers, mostly with non-fiction base, started championing a new kind of cinema. They denounced the crude imitation of Bollywood aesthetics and demanded indigenous aesthetics and a more realistic approach. They made some films which have received some critical acclaim at home and some international recognition. Historic movies like Balidaan and Seema Rekha made during this period were appreciated both by critics and audience.</p>
<p>
	By 2006, the situation in Nepal calmed down. With the Maoists coming into mainstream politics, the Nepali film industry started to return to its previous state. Today, more films are being made and released. The production companies and those in the industry are enthusiastic about the country’s new situation. The return of peace has opened more venues for the shooting of films, and the industry is seen to be making good use of this time to revive its image.</p>
<p>
	<span style="font-size: 12px;">New generation moviemakers geared up to make sensible cinema with entertainment rather than Bollywood inspired socio-actions. Kagbeni, Sano Sansar, Mero Euta Saathi Cha,First Love, Kohi Mero, etc. are some of the fine examples of quality cinema in terms of presentation, performance, story and technical superiority. However, they lacked in connecting with the audience. In January 2012, a film named Loot was released which emerged as a blockbuster. It was also the first movie in decades to be screened more than 100 days in the cinema halls. Much recently Chapali Height broke opening weekend gross by earning 8.4 million at the box office, breaking one of the records held by Loot, but Loot still holds the distinction of the highest grosser by far.</span></p>
<p>
	After banning Hindi films in 2012, the breakaway faction of Maoists led by Mohan Baidya was forced to withdraw the ban within a few weeks ahead of the festive season. The party had imposed a ban on ‘vulgar’ Hindi movies in a bid to ‘safeguard national sovereignty’ and ‘promote a self-reliant economy’. Multiplexes and single screen theatres in Kathmandu began screening ‘Barfi’, ‘Heroine’, ‘Oh My God’ and ‘Kamal Dhamal Malamaal’---Hindi movies which were released before screening was stopped.</p>
<p>
	Due to the ban hall owners were either forced to down shutters or screen Nepali movies in few screens on discounted rates. But the response from movie goers was not enthusiastic. Movie halls incurred losses valued at nearly NRs 2.5 crore ( Rs. 1.5 crore approx) during the 10 days from October 1 to October 10, according to Ashok Sarma, managing director of Digital Cinema.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Conclusions:</strong></p>
<p>
	Given the complex reality of globalization in the age of free information and entertainment, we need to reconsider our cultural boundary and perception very seriously. Before anything else, we need to be more logically political and less emotionally cultural.</p>
<p>
	“Filmmaking is like a nuclear power. If used properly, it can immensely help mankind. And if misused, it can destroy many minds,” says the noted alternative film-maker of Assamese origin, Jahnu Barua. There can be cross-cultural flow through cinema across South Asia and this can help develop people-to-people relations.</p>
<p>
	Often the anti-woman or commodification of sex and violence through a large number of Bollywood films are questioned by critics in other South Asian nations. And rightly so. “It’s the job of cinema to condemn inexcusable social realities and portray reality as it ought to be — only a lazy film maker will claim that it’s impossible to do both while remaining entertaining and commercially viable,” says Anna MM Vetticad, author of The Adventures of an Intrepid Film Critic. A trip to the cinema can easily be a lesson in how to objectify women: skimpy clothes, close-ups of bare midriffs and of course, ‘item numbers’. Post the December 16 Delhi gangrape, the lyrics of the Fevicol se &nbsp;song came under fire. &nbsp;However, it is important to celebrate some changes for the positive as well. Though unable to entirely shrug off their unease of independent or ambitious women (think the climax of Cocktail or Fashion), recent movies have given us heroines who are vocal and free-spirited. Movies such as Aiyya frankly depict female desire. Even sexiness is no longer the preserve of the Sheilas or the Chikni Chamelis. In Zoya Akhtar’s Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara, Katrina Kaif is presented as beautiful, attractive but the camera doesn’t letch at her.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Further, film talent training, giving boost to film exhibition revenue, and creating production standards to achieve by allowing Indian Cinema can easily be the benefits in other South Asian nations.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	This is not to say that there should not be any form of protection given to local film industry and talent. Make shows of local cinema compulsory in certain time-slots, by law. Allow local block-busters to be screened in prime time too, through market forces. Let local media adequately publicize the local cinema and its talent. Let tax rebates be given to local cinema and higher entertainment taxes on Bollywood cinema. Co-opt and legalize the income coming in, do not ban and languish in revenue.</p>
<p>
	Further, let there be institutional ways of promoting South Asian cinema within India too: through South Asian Film Festivals, workshops, day-time shows in certain markets (depending on the language spoken in those markets). Pakistani Urdu based films would go well in select halls of Lucknow, Hyderabad, Mumbai and even Delhi. Nepali films will have a good market in eastern and north-eastern India specifically. Bangladeshi films are being released in West Bengal routinely. The trend needs to be encouraged further through institutional and media efforts to this end.</p>
<div>
	<span style="font-size:10px;">(The author is former Dean of Symbiosis International University and President of the advisory board at Whistling Woods School of Communication, Mumbai.)</span></div>
<div>
	<span style="font-size:10px;"><br />
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			'title' => 'Will South Asia Change  For The Better In Next One Year?',
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	<strong>By Prof Ujjwal K Chowdhury</strong></p>
<p>
	<strong>Impending Elections</strong></p>
<p>
	General Elections are due in Pakistan in May 2013, being discussed for June 2013 in Nepal, are expected in late this year in Bangladesh and Maldives, and are scheduled for early 2014 in India (which can be preponed) and are in 2015 in Sri Lanka (which also can be preponed in the light of intense internal conflicts between Buddhist Sinhalese majority and Tamil Hindu and Muslim Sinhalese minorities).</p>
<p>
	Hence, within next 12 to 15 months, South Asia is surely up for a different scenario, hopefully qualitatively different too from what it is now.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Scenario Today</strong></p>
<p>
	The largest nation of the region, India, is virtually plagued with policy paralysis for quite some time now, the ruling dispensation facing serious corruption charges and being at the mercy of belligerent allies. With rise of Modi within BJP polarizing the electorate, and larger states of India being ruled by regional forces, the political scenario is ambiguous just now. The ensuing elections to state assemblies in Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Rajasthan will throw some light on the political finals of General Elections.</p>
<p>
	Pakistan, for quite some time, has been an ungoverned and ungovernable state with terrorist and radical Islamic forces controlling certain parts of the country, youth force behind an aggressive political posturing by Imran Khan and his Tehreeq-E-Insaaf Party, anti-corruption movement led by the Pakistani crusader Muhammad Tahir ul Qadri being on, Nawaz Sharief’s Muslim League threatened as former military strongman Pervez Musharraf returns to activate his similarly positioned All Pakistan Muslim League, and ruling PPP plagued with corruption and incompetence, with army no signs of relenting ‘real power’ to the democratically elected forces.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Sri Lanka is moving from one round of ethnic cleansing of Tamil Hindus to another round, and this time of Sinhalese Muslims. Majority Buddhist Sinhalese nationalism is on the rise and doubts are being expressed about the survival of multi-party and multi-ethnic secular democracy in that country.</p>
<p>
	Bangladesh is in the throes of a bitter conflict between radical Islamists and Islamic political forces, represented by BNP-Jamaat alliance on one side and the liberal Awami League and left wing forces on the other, with the ruling Awami League floundering at every step. The conflict has permeated into culture, media, places of worship, street fights, rallies, violence, et al, and recent violence before and after Shahbaug protests by the secularists has taken more than 80 lives so far.</p>
<p>
	<img alt="Birendra International Convention Center, BICC, South Asia" src="http://www.newbusinessage.com/ckfinder/userfiles/Images/south_asia_May2013_bicc.jpg" style="float:left; margin:0 10px 0 0;" />Nepal is in its stage of political indecisiveness just now, having put in place an electoral government led by the sitting Chief Justice and some bureaucrats as ministers, but no election date and proper Election Commission still in place.</p>
<p>
	Maldives is divided bitterly, akin to Bangladesh, between the ruling Islamic political forces led by current President Mohamed Waheed Hussain Manik and the opposing liberal secular forces of former President Mohamed Nausheed, with India intervening on behalf of Nausheed recently. The difference is, unlike Bangladesh, the Islamic political forces are ruling Maldives ousting the democratically elected Nausheed’s government in a bloodless coup.</p>
<p>
	In effect, South Asia today is completely in a state of flux and uncertainty and the next 15 months are expected to ascertain the contours of the region for the next half a decade or more.</p>
<p>
	<strong>India@2014</strong></p>
<p>
	<img alt="Narendra Modi, BJP, South Asia" height="236" src="http://www.newbusinessage.com/ckfinder/userfiles/Images/south_asia_May2013_narendra_modi.jpg" style="float:right; margin:0 0 0 10px;" width="350" />For the first time in a decade, India’s GDP growth has come below 5% in a year from as high as 9% a few years back. Price-rise, corruption, civil society activism, regional forces, discontent with the Centre: all have been on the rise unabated across the last three years, and larger part of the thinking-talking-arguing middle class is sure that Congress led UPA is sure to be defeated in the next election, and may even prepone the polls to avoid complete washout.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	BJP has turned backwards, bringing to the fore all Hindutva radical faces like Uma Bharati, Vinay Katiyar, Varun Gandhi, Amit Shah, Kalyan Singh and expecting to blend this majority-ism with the good governance record and personal charisma of Narendra Modi along with pro-farmer approach of Sushma Swaraj and Rajnath Singh on Land Acquisition Bill, and create an infallible force to win 200 seats in some 545 member Lok Sabha, and then manage to come to power with old (Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, etc) and new (AIADMK, TDP, etc) allies.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Pakistan@2014</strong></p>
<p>
	<img alt="Imran Khan, South Asia" height="242" src="http://www.newbusinessage.com/ckfinder/userfiles/Images/south_asia_May2013_imran_khan.jpg" style="float:left; margin:0 10px 0 0;" width="350" />If you talk to youths on the streets of Karachi or Islamabad, Imran Khan is all set to make a thundering entry into power as the next PM of Pakistan. If you talk to the people in 40s and 50s, they are confused. Surely they expect PPP to be defeated after a spate of poor governance, but Musharraf and Nawaz Sharief battling for the rightist votes will only brighten prospects of PPP unless Imran Khan really makes the tide of the youths into that of the nation.</p>
<p>
	<strong><br />
	</strong></p>
<p>
	<strong>Maldives and Bangladesh@2014</strong></p>
<p>
	Free and fair elections in these countries and tacit role of India may ensure liberal forces of Nausheed in Maldives and Sheikh Haseena in Bangladesh to once again win. However, mobilization of the rural masses and Arabs funded radical Islamic forces may turn the apple-curt and retain power in Male and capture it in Dhaka.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Sri Lanka@2015</strong></p>
<p>
	Given the fact that the army stands solidly behind President Rajapakshye and the international community has limited role in the internal affairs of the island nation, while India’s role is curbed due to growing SL-China relations, the current rulers are expected to bulldoze all opposition and retain power in Colombo whenever the elections are conducted there.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Nepal@2014:</strong></p>
<p>
	The biggest question first is whether the elections will be held, if not in June, at least within November next, and if a popularly elected Constituent Assembly and thereby the government will come to power. Second, if elections are being held, whenever, whether they will be free and fair. Then, after elections, if at all any political force or coalition gets clear majority. Given the situation on ground today, ruling Maoists along with their Madhesi allies may be the largest political bloc, short of majority, while the rest of the opposition, together though a majority, may never come as a single bloc. &nbsp;</p>
<p>
	<strong>Alternative Scenario in South Asia by 2014</strong></p>
<p>
	Politics is the art of the impossible and science of changing human behaviour. So, there could be another scenario, come 2014.</p>
<p>
	Narendra Modi led BJP may enthuse the party and voters in a large number of states partly on development agenda and partly on nationalistic slogans and come to power in India with a clear majority (also with minor support from known allies). Nausheed captures power in Maldives and Haseena retains the same in Bangladesh with clear majority again. A Sinhalese opposition leader (e.g. former army chief Sharath Fonseka) with support of India, Tamils, Muslims and a part of Sinhalese people, captures power in a preponed elections in SL in 2014. Maoists-Madheshis get clear majority in CA and government in Nepal. Imran Khan does the apparently impossible feat of coming to power in Pakistan riding a wave of youth support.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	If this scenario happens and with comfortable majorities in each of these South Asian nations, which is also a probable scenario which, therefore, ensures 5 years of undeterred decision governance, the region may see the realization of its economic potentials.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Economic Potentials</strong></p>
<p>
	India has huge trading potentials in the region, hampered by regional skirmishes and conflicts, which can reduce if the alternative scenario above happens. Look East Policy will help India develop international trade and commerce with Bangladesh, Burma and Nepal to the benefit of all. Destructive competition on jute and agro-based products between India and Bangladesh can be reduced.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Tourism in Maldives and Nepal can get a major fillip with peace and liberal regimes coming in these nations. In fact, Indian tourism has much more potentials with liberal visa regimes with Pakistan and Bangladesh as well.</p>
<p>
	Textiles, automobiles, food-grains et al can be traded cheaper, better, faster within the region with political stability returning. Foreign Direct Investments within the region can sharply increase as well with right welcoming policies in place in these countries.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Movement of students, cheaper educational options in the region, and regional cooperation on skills development will be another major area of development.</p>
<p>
	Energy Security in South Asia is bound to increase with Nepal’s huge hydro-power potentials being realized more and India’s immense solar power possibilities explore further (which anyway is a pet project of Narendra Modi).</p>
<p>
	Indo-Pak economic relations are with immense benefits to both the nations. India gets oil from Iran with stress and high costs due to non-cooperation from Pakistan and Pakistan imports several items of daily use and infra-structural growth from the West at a much higher costs than what it can get from India.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	The entire region needs a tremendous infra-structural push, banking and investments development, rise of social entrepreneurship, and value addition to their agricultural produce. In each of these areas, the South Asian nations have a lot to share if they learn to look at each other positively.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<p>
	Change is the spice of life. Irrespective of whether the status quo looks insurmountable, we must look at possibilities positively. South Asia has one-fifths of the world’s population, rich heritage and is the birth-place of Buddhism, Sikhism, Jainism, Hinduism and various forms of animism. South Asia has world’s largest water-resource, highest peaks, longest coastal range, huge solar power reserves. South Asia’s demographic is the youngest in the world, a large number of them being English educated, IT savvy, secular, and democratic in attitude.</p>
<p>
	Mutually cooperative South Asia has a much larger dividend than the current region marred with conflicts and tensions.</p>
<p>
	<span style="font-size:10px;">The author is former Dean of Symbiosis International University and President of the advisory board at Whistling Woods School of Communication, Mumbai.</span></p>',
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<p>
	<strong>By Prof Ujjwal K Chowdhury</strong></p>
<p>
	The tallest leader in the main opposition party of India, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), today is undoubtedly Narendra Modi. The pressures of the people at the rank and file of the party has already forced the disconnected national leadership to come scurrying to Modi to lead the party at the centre, and soon he will be its Prime Ministerial candidate for the general elections in 2014. As a New Nepal is expected to emerge from the polls of 2013, Indian General Elections of 2014 (which may be earlier than scheduled) may give rise to a New India under Modi, with implications for Nepal as well in South Asia.</p>
<p>
	<img alt="South Asia, New Business Age" height="317" src="http://newbusinessage.com/ckfinder/userfiles/Images/south_asia_april2013_narendra.jpg" style="float:left; margin:0 10px 0 0;" width="350" /></p>
<p>
	<strong>Modi’s Journey: Version 2.0:</strong></p>
<p>
	The journey of this single resolute man at the top of Gujarat’s affairs started as a Pracharak of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) in the first stage of his public life. He was deputed to Gujarat politics to quell the conflict between the Kesubhai Patel and Shankersinh Vaghela factions of BJP some twelve years ago, signalling the start of version 2.0 of his public life.</p>
<p>
	Since then, for a dozen years, he has refrained from going to Delhi much, completely disassociated himself from national politics of BJP and focussed on Gujarat to ensure his third consecutive victory in Gujarat Assembly elections as recently as on December 20, 2012.</p>
<p>
	That he will win the elections for BJP was a foregone conclusion. Question was of the margin. His focus was purely on economic development, and he played it to the hilt, with the glamour of 3D technologies and the force of social media apart from mainstream media.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Presently, Gujarat holds around 30 per cent of India’s stock market capitalisation, contributes 22 per cent of the total exports and about 9.5 per cent of the country’s total work force. Gujarat is also a power surplus state, providing electricity even to the villages.The state has registered more than 12% agriculture growth in the last five years against the national average of 2%.</p>
<p>
	The per capita income at constant prices has shown robust growth in the past five years. There is also a major thrust on infrastructure. The development of ports and port-based investment activity is an instance. There is also a plan for shipbuilding parks along the coastline.</p>
<p>
	Hence, the development slogan, soft Hindutva through Vivekananda Yatra and no tickets to minorities, a techno-savvy one person, one agenda focussed campaign paid off yielding a rich dividend of 115 MLAs for BJP in a House of 182 MLAs.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Modi’s Journey: Version 3.0:&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p>
	<strong>The 10-point Road-map:</strong></p>
<p>
	The most interesting now will be to watch the roadmap that Modi takes in his third and most crucial and challenging phase in public and political life.</p>
<p>
	First, managing home. Gujarat is his home-turf. But now to move to the Centre, he has to leave a legacy that symbolizes him in every sense. Significantly, he has kept his Cabinet small, and has at least two favourites in significant positions for grooming a future CM (and if needed, a Deputy CM too): Saurabh Patel and Anandiben Patel.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Second, managing the Sangh Pariwar. He cannot afford to alienate Nagpur, which still holds a veto power in the Sangh Parivar. As his popularity soars, RSS under Mohan Bhagwat may be left with no choice but rally behind its extra-ordinary Swayamsevak. But Modi would do well to keep Bhagwat in good humour at this stage.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Third, managing the NDA. It is almost certain that JD (United) of Nitish Kumar-Sharad Yadav shall leave NDA if Modi is the front-man. But, Modi has his own dark horses: Jayalalitha led AIADMK, Naveen Patnaik led BJD, Uddhav led Shiv Sena and Raj led MNS in Maharashtra are sure to through their weight behind Modi which will outgrow the strength of JD(U) concentrated in Bihar alone. Interestingly, BS Yediyurappa, the beleaguered rebel BJP leader who has just set up Karnataka Janata Party, may stage a comeback if Modi is the central leader of BJP.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Fourth, managing minorities. What Modi needs to guard is not to create an anti-minority image any further, rather focus on non-appeasement anti-votebank all-people development agenda, being silent on minority-focused discourse in Indian politics in his interests.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Fifth, managing the riot-image and legal cases. Herein again, silence is golden. One partial statement after Gujarat victory this time was itself a good strategy, “Forgive me if I have done any mistake”. This is the best policy: being humble but not talking about the past and riots. Vengeance is a measure for lesser mortals.</p>
<p>
	Sixth, creating symbolisms. It will be a great move for Modi to seek election to the Parliament from Lucknow, which elected Atal Behari Vajpayee several times. Symbolically strong, this will rejuvenate BJP in Uttar Pradesh, bring in Kalyan Singh at the centre-stage in UP, and lead to soft Hindutva polarization in favour of BJP in most of the Hindi heartland.</p>
<p>
	Seventh, strengthening mass constituencies. In 2014, the dominant section of the electorate shall be young people below 35 years of age. The electorate between 18 and 35 years of age are expected to be above 40% of the voters, and in case of a good franchise, the younger voters are expected to be participating more. Modi has succeeded tremendously with the youth in Gujarat ensuring a hat-trick of victories. If he can put forth a viable plan for Young India, package and communicate it in a techno-savvy way (for which he is well-known), and make it caste and community-neutral, he is assured of a huge support herein.</p>
<p>
	Eighth, harnessing the woman-power. Half the young people are women, and a large part of elder women are dependent emotionally and financially on the younger population. Also, Modi’s personal charisma, single status, and a straight talking image et al go well with the women. He, however, will need to walk the talk on women’s safety issues which is the major concern for a large number of vocal women,both urban and rural.</p>
<p>
	Ninth, envisioning an Alternative India. Herein lies the major creative challenge to Moditva. If he can change the discourse of Indian politics from divisive identity to development issues, from regional parochialism to a uniform Indian-ness, from Western outlook to political language to a pride in everything Indian, he has made a great start to this third phase in his political journey. He has started this through his recent speeches, first in Sriram College in Delhi and more recently in the India Today Conclave.</p>
<p>
	Tenth, and finally, creating a global image and acceptability. While Vibrant Gujarat has given Modi the global image of a productive performing leader, and Indian diaspora looks up to him for a national leadership role now, he still needs to politically cultivate major global forces and global Indians more. Hence, formal and informal channels need to be evolved through visits, use of media, receiving delegations, use of global Indian bodies, et al, which position Modi as the undisputable leader whom the nation has been waiting for long.</p>
<p>
	<span style="font-size:10px;">The author is former Dean of Symbiosis International University and President of the advisory board at Whistling Woods School of Communication, Mumbai.</span></p>',
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			'keywords' => 'Narendra Modi: Political Journey 3.0 & Message For Nepal',
			'description' => 'The tallest leader in the main opposition party of India, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), today is undoubtedly Narendra Modi. The pressures of the people at the rank and file of the party has already forced the disconnected national leadership to come scurrying to Modi to lead the party at the centre, and soon he will be its Prime Ministerial candidate for the general elections in 2014. As a New Nepal is expected to emerge from the polls of 2013, Indian General Elections of 2014 (which may be earlier than scheduled) may give rise to a New India under Modi, with implications for Nepal as well in South Asia.',
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			'title' => 'Century Of Indian Cinema: The South Asian Message',
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			'content' => '<p>
	<em>Indian Cinema has turned a hundred years. And as it grew in shape, size, craft, value and visibility globally, it had love-hate relations in the South Asian region, whether in Nepal, Pakistan and Bangladesh. How have the relations of Bollywood with people and governments in South Asia evolved?</em></p>
<p>
	<strong>The 100 Years and Journey So Far</strong></p>
<p>
	Indian Cinema, not Bollywood, has completed a hundred years in May 2013, considering the release of the Marathi classic Raja Harischandra by father of Indian cinema, Dada Saheb Phalke, in May 1913 as the inception of Indian Cinema. Though the global face of Indian Cinema is surely Bollywood, the large-scale Hindi films from Mumbai, there are much more to the art and craft of cinema from India, specially the films in Malayalam, Bengali, Marathi, Tamil and Telugu languages. The non-Hindi films from India are equal in number and value of business to the Hindi films, all totaling some 1200 films in 2012 bringing in some USD 3.6 billion revenue. This is more than double the number of films produced by Hollywood though the revenue is more than a trillion dollars in Hollywood. The spread of the Indian cinema industry’s oeuvre is amazing. The films are shown in some 100 overseas markets, catalyzing the growth of trans-national creative networks, collaborations. Big studios Columbia, Disney and 20th Century Fox are now striking co-production deals with Indian companies.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Bollywood &amp; Pakistan:</strong></p>
<p>
	In the South Asian markets, especially in Pakistan and Bangladesh, Indian cinema was officially banned for long. However, that did not help the local entertainment industry and Indian cinema found pirated ways into the houses of people wanting the same.</p>
<p>
	The 1960s marked the high point of Pakistan’s film industry, when Abbot Road in Lahore filled with smart art-deco cinemas playing the latest colour offerings to packed houses. Today, the heart of movieland is dead. The 1998 hit Choorian briefly revived the industry. Its tale of a city boy who falls in love with a country girl promised to another man, was first dismissed by critics as derivate, but it proved a huge hit with movie audience who loved the way it pinched a proven Bollywood formula.</p>
<p>
	Pakistan had banned Indian films after going to war with its neighbor in 1965 but over the past few years, as relations between the nuclear-armed rivals have improved, authorities have been allowing a trickle of Indian films to be shown in cinemas. That has delighted movie fans and cinema operators but Pakistani film producers fear a flood of Indian films could mean the end of the local film industry.</p>
<p>
	However, in recent years some of Pakistan’s hottest talent has moved to Mumbai. Ali Zafar, one of the country’s biggest pop stars, made his Bollywood debut this year in Tere Bin Laden. Beena Malik, singers Nusrat Fateh Ali and Rahat Fateh Ali and many others are all too known. Add in a stagnating economy and criticism of Lollywood’s bawdy movies by Islamic groups, cinema in neighbouring India seems an attractive destination for young stars. Nilofar Bakhtiar, who chairs the Pakistan Senate’s standing committee on culture and tourism, suggested strengthening ties with Bollywood to help revive Lollywood’s fortunes, including film training opportunities. But the suggestion would lead to a faster exodus of talent to India, according to Qaisar Sanaullah Khan, secretary of the Pakistan Cinema Owners’ Association.</p>
<p>
	For long, competition from Bollywood fare as well as the mediocrity of Pakistani films means that many Pakistanis opt to stay at home and watch Indian movies on pirated DVDs. Cinemas have been struggling for years and many operators have given up and sold off their premises which have been converted into shopping centers or offices. From about 750 cinemas nationwide in the 1970s, there are now 300. But Indian films are breathing life back into Pakistani cinemas. Cinema operators are cashing in on the revival of interest in the cinema the Indian films have generated. Before screenings of Indian films began, a cinema ticket in Karachi cost less than 100 rupees. Now it is 150 rupees or more. Pakistani film distributors also welcome the revival of cinemas.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Bollywood &amp; Bangladesh:</strong></p>
<p>
	It’s official. After being exiled for 39 long years since 1972, Indian films were set to release in Bangladesh since late 2010. It’s no secret that Bollywood films are immensely popular across the border in Pakistan and Nepal, and Tamil films in Sri Lanka. However, thanks to protectionist measures by the Bangladesh government, Indian films have long been banned there. The rationale behind the ban that came into effect in 1972 after India won independence for them from Pakistan was to protect the fledgling Bangladeshi film industry. In theory, it was not a bad idea.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	But the lawmakers forgot one small thing. In the information age, getting access to Indian films through illegal means is extremely easy. And the Bangladesh audience prefers Indian films, as the high number of shops selling illegal DVDs and the small number of cinemas in Dhaka testify.</p>
<p>
	In January 2010, Bangladesh decided to allow the release of Indian films but this happy period lasted only six months as aggrieved local filmmakers cried foul and appealed against the decision. Thus, Indian films were banned again. Now, cinema owners, fed up with the lack of local interest in local fare, appealed to the court to allow Indian film imports and the courts have agreed, leading to official Bollywood releases in Bangladesh since September 2011.</p>
<p>
	First of all, in the age of globalization and free sky we cannot keep resisting foreign culture to creep into our society. The popularity of Hindi cinema is immense not only in Bangladesh but also across the world. And people around the world can easily get access to the cable and satellite television. Moreover, DVD and free download of movies from the internet have made it even easier for the middle and upper class viewers to enjoy Hindi or English movie at will. These alternatives do not include the marginal class of the society. The irony is the middle-class in the country rarely go to cinema hall to watch Bengali cinema or keep themselves updated about news and views of Dhaliwood. It is strongly believed that the target population of Bengali cinema is no other than the rickshaw pullers, garments workers and other wage labourers. The quality of Bangladesh cinema is quite understandable in terms of its technical aspects and storyline, which are not comparable with any other country’s cinema such as Indian, or even Pakistan and Nepal.</p>
<p>
	&nbsp;One can easily ask why the ‘cinema protectors’ do not protest against English cinema or Hindi cinema shown on satellite TV or in the internet. The reason is quite obvious. It is either their family members who are direct consumers of those sources or they have no hand to regulate the sky. But, they only can regulate the taste and fate of the marginal people and cinema halls as they wish.</p>
<p>
	Also, the concept of ‘culture’ is not so easy to understand what we perceive it to be. It has different facets and dimensions which can encompass time and space and influence people in another society. We use the concept ‘culture’ without much thought and conceptualize it which is why the concept remains a vague one in academia and even in the socio-political sphere. Dhaliwood producers and exhibitors are now understanding that if their own cinema quality falls and cannot evoke the audience to the cinema hall what will happen to some 800 cinema halls that still survive across the country?</p>
<p>
	<strong>Bollywood &amp; Nepal:</strong></p>
<p>
	The making of Nepali films is said to have begun with D.B. Pariyar’s Satya Harishchandra, which was the first Nepali-language film to be shot. It was produced from Kolkata, India, and was released on September 14, 1951. Aama (meaning mother) was the first film produced in Nepal and was released on October 7, 1964. It was produced by the Information Department of His Majesty’s Government of Nepal. The first film to be produced under a private banner was Maitighar, which was released at the end of 1966 by Sumonanjali Films Pvt. Ltd. Although it was a Nepali movie, it had many Indians contributing toward its making. The Nepal government established the Royal Nepal Film Corporation in 1971. Mann Ko Bandh was the first film produced by the corporation. It was followed by Kumari (the first Eastman color Nepali film) in 1978, Sindoor in 1980, and Jeevan Rekha in a series. Their success opened up the avenue for private parties to enter into filmmaking as an industrial endeavor.</p>
<p>
	In 1990, Nepal witnessed important political change. The people’s movement brought the monarchy to its knees and democracy was restored. The society started to become open and vibrant. This had an important consequence for the fledgling film industry: It began to grow rapidly or even to “bloat”. There was an unprecedented growth in the number of productions. Within three years, some 140 films were made. Distribution started to develop. Market share in the existing market increased and the market itself expanded. Cinema halls increased to more than 300. Nepali filmmakers became optimistic of displacing Hindi films, which had dominated the Nepali market earlier.</p>
<p>
	The start of the Maoist revolution in Nepal in the mid-1990s was the beginning of the downfall of the domestic film industry. There was an unwritten ban on Hindi films too for quite some time. In the period of war and conflict, a very small number of films were made, and audience numbers fell sharply. It resulted in lower budgets and even lower performances, which resulted in even smaller audiences. In the later years of the conflict, the production and release of Nepali films had almost come to a standstill. Many actors and filmmakers left the country in search for work abroad.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Also, during the 1990s, some filmmakers, mostly with non-fiction base, started championing a new kind of cinema. They denounced the crude imitation of Bollywood aesthetics and demanded indigenous aesthetics and a more realistic approach. They made some films which have received some critical acclaim at home and some international recognition. Historic movies like Balidaan and Seema Rekha made during this period were appreciated both by critics and audience.</p>
<p>
	By 2006, the situation in Nepal calmed down. With the Maoists coming into mainstream politics, the Nepali film industry started to return to its previous state. Today, more films are being made and released. The production companies and those in the industry are enthusiastic about the country’s new situation. The return of peace has opened more venues for the shooting of films, and the industry is seen to be making good use of this time to revive its image.</p>
<p>
	<span style="font-size: 12px;">New generation moviemakers geared up to make sensible cinema with entertainment rather than Bollywood inspired socio-actions. Kagbeni, Sano Sansar, Mero Euta Saathi Cha,First Love, Kohi Mero, etc. are some of the fine examples of quality cinema in terms of presentation, performance, story and technical superiority. However, they lacked in connecting with the audience. In January 2012, a film named Loot was released which emerged as a blockbuster. It was also the first movie in decades to be screened more than 100 days in the cinema halls. Much recently Chapali Height broke opening weekend gross by earning 8.4 million at the box office, breaking one of the records held by Loot, but Loot still holds the distinction of the highest grosser by far.</span></p>
<p>
	After banning Hindi films in 2012, the breakaway faction of Maoists led by Mohan Baidya was forced to withdraw the ban within a few weeks ahead of the festive season. The party had imposed a ban on ‘vulgar’ Hindi movies in a bid to ‘safeguard national sovereignty’ and ‘promote a self-reliant economy’. Multiplexes and single screen theatres in Kathmandu began screening ‘Barfi’, ‘Heroine’, ‘Oh My God’ and ‘Kamal Dhamal Malamaal’---Hindi movies which were released before screening was stopped.</p>
<p>
	Due to the ban hall owners were either forced to down shutters or screen Nepali movies in few screens on discounted rates. But the response from movie goers was not enthusiastic. Movie halls incurred losses valued at nearly NRs 2.5 crore ( Rs. 1.5 crore approx) during the 10 days from October 1 to October 10, according to Ashok Sarma, managing director of Digital Cinema.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Conclusions:</strong></p>
<p>
	Given the complex reality of globalization in the age of free information and entertainment, we need to reconsider our cultural boundary and perception very seriously. Before anything else, we need to be more logically political and less emotionally cultural.</p>
<p>
	“Filmmaking is like a nuclear power. If used properly, it can immensely help mankind. And if misused, it can destroy many minds,” says the noted alternative film-maker of Assamese origin, Jahnu Barua. There can be cross-cultural flow through cinema across South Asia and this can help develop people-to-people relations.</p>
<p>
	Often the anti-woman or commodification of sex and violence through a large number of Bollywood films are questioned by critics in other South Asian nations. And rightly so. “It’s the job of cinema to condemn inexcusable social realities and portray reality as it ought to be — only a lazy film maker will claim that it’s impossible to do both while remaining entertaining and commercially viable,” says Anna MM Vetticad, author of The Adventures of an Intrepid Film Critic. A trip to the cinema can easily be a lesson in how to objectify women: skimpy clothes, close-ups of bare midriffs and of course, ‘item numbers’. Post the December 16 Delhi gangrape, the lyrics of the Fevicol se &nbsp;song came under fire. &nbsp;However, it is important to celebrate some changes for the positive as well. Though unable to entirely shrug off their unease of independent or ambitious women (think the climax of Cocktail or Fashion), recent movies have given us heroines who are vocal and free-spirited. Movies such as Aiyya frankly depict female desire. Even sexiness is no longer the preserve of the Sheilas or the Chikni Chamelis. In Zoya Akhtar’s Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara, Katrina Kaif is presented as beautiful, attractive but the camera doesn’t letch at her.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Further, film talent training, giving boost to film exhibition revenue, and creating production standards to achieve by allowing Indian Cinema can easily be the benefits in other South Asian nations.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	This is not to say that there should not be any form of protection given to local film industry and talent. Make shows of local cinema compulsory in certain time-slots, by law. Allow local block-busters to be screened in prime time too, through market forces. Let local media adequately publicize the local cinema and its talent. Let tax rebates be given to local cinema and higher entertainment taxes on Bollywood cinema. Co-opt and legalize the income coming in, do not ban and languish in revenue.</p>
<p>
	Further, let there be institutional ways of promoting South Asian cinema within India too: through South Asian Film Festivals, workshops, day-time shows in certain markets (depending on the language spoken in those markets). Pakistani Urdu based films would go well in select halls of Lucknow, Hyderabad, Mumbai and even Delhi. Nepali films will have a good market in eastern and north-eastern India specifically. Bangladeshi films are being released in West Bengal routinely. The trend needs to be encouraged further through institutional and media efforts to this end.</p>
<div>
	<span style="font-size:10px;">(The author is former Dean of Symbiosis International University and President of the advisory board at Whistling Woods School of Communication, Mumbai.)</span></div>
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	<strong>By Prof Ujjwal K Chowdhury</strong></p>
<p>
	<strong>Impending Elections</strong></p>
<p>
	General Elections are due in Pakistan in May 2013, being discussed for June 2013 in Nepal, are expected in late this year in Bangladesh and Maldives, and are scheduled for early 2014 in India (which can be preponed) and are in 2015 in Sri Lanka (which also can be preponed in the light of intense internal conflicts between Buddhist Sinhalese majority and Tamil Hindu and Muslim Sinhalese minorities).</p>
<p>
	Hence, within next 12 to 15 months, South Asia is surely up for a different scenario, hopefully qualitatively different too from what it is now.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Scenario Today</strong></p>
<p>
	The largest nation of the region, India, is virtually plagued with policy paralysis for quite some time now, the ruling dispensation facing serious corruption charges and being at the mercy of belligerent allies. With rise of Modi within BJP polarizing the electorate, and larger states of India being ruled by regional forces, the political scenario is ambiguous just now. The ensuing elections to state assemblies in Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Rajasthan will throw some light on the political finals of General Elections.</p>
<p>
	Pakistan, for quite some time, has been an ungoverned and ungovernable state with terrorist and radical Islamic forces controlling certain parts of the country, youth force behind an aggressive political posturing by Imran Khan and his Tehreeq-E-Insaaf Party, anti-corruption movement led by the Pakistani crusader Muhammad Tahir ul Qadri being on, Nawaz Sharief’s Muslim League threatened as former military strongman Pervez Musharraf returns to activate his similarly positioned All Pakistan Muslim League, and ruling PPP plagued with corruption and incompetence, with army no signs of relenting ‘real power’ to the democratically elected forces.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Sri Lanka is moving from one round of ethnic cleansing of Tamil Hindus to another round, and this time of Sinhalese Muslims. Majority Buddhist Sinhalese nationalism is on the rise and doubts are being expressed about the survival of multi-party and multi-ethnic secular democracy in that country.</p>
<p>
	Bangladesh is in the throes of a bitter conflict between radical Islamists and Islamic political forces, represented by BNP-Jamaat alliance on one side and the liberal Awami League and left wing forces on the other, with the ruling Awami League floundering at every step. The conflict has permeated into culture, media, places of worship, street fights, rallies, violence, et al, and recent violence before and after Shahbaug protests by the secularists has taken more than 80 lives so far.</p>
<p>
	<img alt="Birendra International Convention Center, BICC, South Asia" src="http://www.newbusinessage.com/ckfinder/userfiles/Images/south_asia_May2013_bicc.jpg" style="float:left; margin:0 10px 0 0;" />Nepal is in its stage of political indecisiveness just now, having put in place an electoral government led by the sitting Chief Justice and some bureaucrats as ministers, but no election date and proper Election Commission still in place.</p>
<p>
	Maldives is divided bitterly, akin to Bangladesh, between the ruling Islamic political forces led by current President Mohamed Waheed Hussain Manik and the opposing liberal secular forces of former President Mohamed Nausheed, with India intervening on behalf of Nausheed recently. The difference is, unlike Bangladesh, the Islamic political forces are ruling Maldives ousting the democratically elected Nausheed’s government in a bloodless coup.</p>
<p>
	In effect, South Asia today is completely in a state of flux and uncertainty and the next 15 months are expected to ascertain the contours of the region for the next half a decade or more.</p>
<p>
	<strong>India@2014</strong></p>
<p>
	<img alt="Narendra Modi, BJP, South Asia" height="236" src="http://www.newbusinessage.com/ckfinder/userfiles/Images/south_asia_May2013_narendra_modi.jpg" style="float:right; margin:0 0 0 10px;" width="350" />For the first time in a decade, India’s GDP growth has come below 5% in a year from as high as 9% a few years back. Price-rise, corruption, civil society activism, regional forces, discontent with the Centre: all have been on the rise unabated across the last three years, and larger part of the thinking-talking-arguing middle class is sure that Congress led UPA is sure to be defeated in the next election, and may even prepone the polls to avoid complete washout.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	BJP has turned backwards, bringing to the fore all Hindutva radical faces like Uma Bharati, Vinay Katiyar, Varun Gandhi, Amit Shah, Kalyan Singh and expecting to blend this majority-ism with the good governance record and personal charisma of Narendra Modi along with pro-farmer approach of Sushma Swaraj and Rajnath Singh on Land Acquisition Bill, and create an infallible force to win 200 seats in some 545 member Lok Sabha, and then manage to come to power with old (Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, etc) and new (AIADMK, TDP, etc) allies.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Pakistan@2014</strong></p>
<p>
	<img alt="Imran Khan, South Asia" height="242" src="http://www.newbusinessage.com/ckfinder/userfiles/Images/south_asia_May2013_imran_khan.jpg" style="float:left; margin:0 10px 0 0;" width="350" />If you talk to youths on the streets of Karachi or Islamabad, Imran Khan is all set to make a thundering entry into power as the next PM of Pakistan. If you talk to the people in 40s and 50s, they are confused. Surely they expect PPP to be defeated after a spate of poor governance, but Musharraf and Nawaz Sharief battling for the rightist votes will only brighten prospects of PPP unless Imran Khan really makes the tide of the youths into that of the nation.</p>
<p>
	<strong><br />
	</strong></p>
<p>
	<strong>Maldives and Bangladesh@2014</strong></p>
<p>
	Free and fair elections in these countries and tacit role of India may ensure liberal forces of Nausheed in Maldives and Sheikh Haseena in Bangladesh to once again win. However, mobilization of the rural masses and Arabs funded radical Islamic forces may turn the apple-curt and retain power in Male and capture it in Dhaka.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Sri Lanka@2015</strong></p>
<p>
	Given the fact that the army stands solidly behind President Rajapakshye and the international community has limited role in the internal affairs of the island nation, while India’s role is curbed due to growing SL-China relations, the current rulers are expected to bulldoze all opposition and retain power in Colombo whenever the elections are conducted there.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Nepal@2014:</strong></p>
<p>
	The biggest question first is whether the elections will be held, if not in June, at least within November next, and if a popularly elected Constituent Assembly and thereby the government will come to power. Second, if elections are being held, whenever, whether they will be free and fair. Then, after elections, if at all any political force or coalition gets clear majority. Given the situation on ground today, ruling Maoists along with their Madhesi allies may be the largest political bloc, short of majority, while the rest of the opposition, together though a majority, may never come as a single bloc. &nbsp;</p>
<p>
	<strong>Alternative Scenario in South Asia by 2014</strong></p>
<p>
	Politics is the art of the impossible and science of changing human behaviour. So, there could be another scenario, come 2014.</p>
<p>
	Narendra Modi led BJP may enthuse the party and voters in a large number of states partly on development agenda and partly on nationalistic slogans and come to power in India with a clear majority (also with minor support from known allies). Nausheed captures power in Maldives and Haseena retains the same in Bangladesh with clear majority again. A Sinhalese opposition leader (e.g. former army chief Sharath Fonseka) with support of India, Tamils, Muslims and a part of Sinhalese people, captures power in a preponed elections in SL in 2014. Maoists-Madheshis get clear majority in CA and government in Nepal. Imran Khan does the apparently impossible feat of coming to power in Pakistan riding a wave of youth support.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	If this scenario happens and with comfortable majorities in each of these South Asian nations, which is also a probable scenario which, therefore, ensures 5 years of undeterred decision governance, the region may see the realization of its economic potentials.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Economic Potentials</strong></p>
<p>
	India has huge trading potentials in the region, hampered by regional skirmishes and conflicts, which can reduce if the alternative scenario above happens. Look East Policy will help India develop international trade and commerce with Bangladesh, Burma and Nepal to the benefit of all. Destructive competition on jute and agro-based products between India and Bangladesh can be reduced.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Tourism in Maldives and Nepal can get a major fillip with peace and liberal regimes coming in these nations. In fact, Indian tourism has much more potentials with liberal visa regimes with Pakistan and Bangladesh as well.</p>
<p>
	Textiles, automobiles, food-grains et al can be traded cheaper, better, faster within the region with political stability returning. Foreign Direct Investments within the region can sharply increase as well with right welcoming policies in place in these countries.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Movement of students, cheaper educational options in the region, and regional cooperation on skills development will be another major area of development.</p>
<p>
	Energy Security in South Asia is bound to increase with Nepal’s huge hydro-power potentials being realized more and India’s immense solar power possibilities explore further (which anyway is a pet project of Narendra Modi).</p>
<p>
	Indo-Pak economic relations are with immense benefits to both the nations. India gets oil from Iran with stress and high costs due to non-cooperation from Pakistan and Pakistan imports several items of daily use and infra-structural growth from the West at a much higher costs than what it can get from India.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	The entire region needs a tremendous infra-structural push, banking and investments development, rise of social entrepreneurship, and value addition to their agricultural produce. In each of these areas, the South Asian nations have a lot to share if they learn to look at each other positively.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<p>
	Change is the spice of life. Irrespective of whether the status quo looks insurmountable, we must look at possibilities positively. South Asia has one-fifths of the world’s population, rich heritage and is the birth-place of Buddhism, Sikhism, Jainism, Hinduism and various forms of animism. South Asia has world’s largest water-resource, highest peaks, longest coastal range, huge solar power reserves. South Asia’s demographic is the youngest in the world, a large number of them being English educated, IT savvy, secular, and democratic in attitude.</p>
<p>
	Mutually cooperative South Asia has a much larger dividend than the current region marred with conflicts and tensions.</p>
<p>
	<span style="font-size:10px;">The author is former Dean of Symbiosis International University and President of the advisory board at Whistling Woods School of Communication, Mumbai.</span></p>',
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	 </p>
<p>
	<strong>By Prof Ujjwal K Chowdhury</strong></p>
<p>
	The tallest leader in the main opposition party of India, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), today is undoubtedly Narendra Modi. The pressures of the people at the rank and file of the party has already forced the disconnected national leadership to come scurrying to Modi to lead the party at the centre, and soon he will be its Prime Ministerial candidate for the general elections in 2014. As a New Nepal is expected to emerge from the polls of 2013, Indian General Elections of 2014 (which may be earlier than scheduled) may give rise to a New India under Modi, with implications for Nepal as well in South Asia.</p>
<p>
	<img alt="South Asia, New Business Age" height="317" src="http://newbusinessage.com/ckfinder/userfiles/Images/south_asia_april2013_narendra.jpg" style="float:left; margin:0 10px 0 0;" width="350" /></p>
<p>
	<strong>Modi’s Journey: Version 2.0:</strong></p>
<p>
	The journey of this single resolute man at the top of Gujarat’s affairs started as a Pracharak of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) in the first stage of his public life. He was deputed to Gujarat politics to quell the conflict between the Kesubhai Patel and Shankersinh Vaghela factions of BJP some twelve years ago, signalling the start of version 2.0 of his public life.</p>
<p>
	Since then, for a dozen years, he has refrained from going to Delhi much, completely disassociated himself from national politics of BJP and focussed on Gujarat to ensure his third consecutive victory in Gujarat Assembly elections as recently as on December 20, 2012.</p>
<p>
	That he will win the elections for BJP was a foregone conclusion. Question was of the margin. His focus was purely on economic development, and he played it to the hilt, with the glamour of 3D technologies and the force of social media apart from mainstream media.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Presently, Gujarat holds around 30 per cent of India’s stock market capitalisation, contributes 22 per cent of the total exports and about 9.5 per cent of the country’s total work force. Gujarat is also a power surplus state, providing electricity even to the villages.The state has registered more than 12% agriculture growth in the last five years against the national average of 2%.</p>
<p>
	The per capita income at constant prices has shown robust growth in the past five years. There is also a major thrust on infrastructure. The development of ports and port-based investment activity is an instance. There is also a plan for shipbuilding parks along the coastline.</p>
<p>
	Hence, the development slogan, soft Hindutva through Vivekananda Yatra and no tickets to minorities, a techno-savvy one person, one agenda focussed campaign paid off yielding a rich dividend of 115 MLAs for BJP in a House of 182 MLAs.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Modi’s Journey: Version 3.0:&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p>
	<strong>The 10-point Road-map:</strong></p>
<p>
	The most interesting now will be to watch the roadmap that Modi takes in his third and most crucial and challenging phase in public and political life.</p>
<p>
	First, managing home. Gujarat is his home-turf. But now to move to the Centre, he has to leave a legacy that symbolizes him in every sense. Significantly, he has kept his Cabinet small, and has at least two favourites in significant positions for grooming a future CM (and if needed, a Deputy CM too): Saurabh Patel and Anandiben Patel.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Second, managing the Sangh Pariwar. He cannot afford to alienate Nagpur, which still holds a veto power in the Sangh Parivar. As his popularity soars, RSS under Mohan Bhagwat may be left with no choice but rally behind its extra-ordinary Swayamsevak. But Modi would do well to keep Bhagwat in good humour at this stage.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Third, managing the NDA. It is almost certain that JD (United) of Nitish Kumar-Sharad Yadav shall leave NDA if Modi is the front-man. But, Modi has his own dark horses: Jayalalitha led AIADMK, Naveen Patnaik led BJD, Uddhav led Shiv Sena and Raj led MNS in Maharashtra are sure to through their weight behind Modi which will outgrow the strength of JD(U) concentrated in Bihar alone. Interestingly, BS Yediyurappa, the beleaguered rebel BJP leader who has just set up Karnataka Janata Party, may stage a comeback if Modi is the central leader of BJP.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Fourth, managing minorities. What Modi needs to guard is not to create an anti-minority image any further, rather focus on non-appeasement anti-votebank all-people development agenda, being silent on minority-focused discourse in Indian politics in his interests.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Fifth, managing the riot-image and legal cases. Herein again, silence is golden. One partial statement after Gujarat victory this time was itself a good strategy, “Forgive me if I have done any mistake”. This is the best policy: being humble but not talking about the past and riots. Vengeance is a measure for lesser mortals.</p>
<p>
	Sixth, creating symbolisms. It will be a great move for Modi to seek election to the Parliament from Lucknow, which elected Atal Behari Vajpayee several times. Symbolically strong, this will rejuvenate BJP in Uttar Pradesh, bring in Kalyan Singh at the centre-stage in UP, and lead to soft Hindutva polarization in favour of BJP in most of the Hindi heartland.</p>
<p>
	Seventh, strengthening mass constituencies. In 2014, the dominant section of the electorate shall be young people below 35 years of age. The electorate between 18 and 35 years of age are expected to be above 40% of the voters, and in case of a good franchise, the younger voters are expected to be participating more. Modi has succeeded tremendously with the youth in Gujarat ensuring a hat-trick of victories. If he can put forth a viable plan for Young India, package and communicate it in a techno-savvy way (for which he is well-known), and make it caste and community-neutral, he is assured of a huge support herein.</p>
<p>
	Eighth, harnessing the woman-power. Half the young people are women, and a large part of elder women are dependent emotionally and financially on the younger population. Also, Modi’s personal charisma, single status, and a straight talking image et al go well with the women. He, however, will need to walk the talk on women’s safety issues which is the major concern for a large number of vocal women,both urban and rural.</p>
<p>
	Ninth, envisioning an Alternative India. Herein lies the major creative challenge to Moditva. If he can change the discourse of Indian politics from divisive identity to development issues, from regional parochialism to a uniform Indian-ness, from Western outlook to political language to a pride in everything Indian, he has made a great start to this third phase in his political journey. He has started this through his recent speeches, first in Sriram College in Delhi and more recently in the India Today Conclave.</p>
<p>
	Tenth, and finally, creating a global image and acceptability. While Vibrant Gujarat has given Modi the global image of a productive performing leader, and Indian diaspora looks up to him for a national leadership role now, he still needs to politically cultivate major global forces and global Indians more. Hence, formal and informal channels need to be evolved through visits, use of media, receiving delegations, use of global Indian bodies, et al, which position Modi as the undisputable leader whom the nation has been waiting for long.</p>
<p>
	<span style="font-size:10px;">The author is former Dean of Symbiosis International University and President of the advisory board at Whistling Woods School of Communication, Mumbai.</span></p>',
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			'title' => 'Century Of Indian Cinema: The South Asian Message',
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	<em>Indian Cinema has turned a hundred years. And as it grew in shape, size, craft, value and visibility globally, it had love-hate relations in the South Asian region, whether in Nepal, Pakistan and Bangladesh. How have the relations of Bollywood with people and governments in South Asia evolved?</em></p>
<p>
	<strong>The 100 Years and Journey So Far</strong></p>
<p>
	Indian Cinema, not Bollywood, has completed a hundred years in May 2013, considering the release of the Marathi classic Raja Harischandra by father of Indian cinema, Dada Saheb Phalke, in May 1913 as the inception of Indian Cinema. Though the global face of Indian Cinema is surely Bollywood, the large-scale Hindi films from Mumbai, there are much more to the art and craft of cinema from India, specially the films in Malayalam, Bengali, Marathi, Tamil and Telugu languages. The non-Hindi films from India are equal in number and value of business to the Hindi films, all totaling some 1200 films in 2012 bringing in some USD 3.6 billion revenue. This is more than double the number of films produced by Hollywood though the revenue is more than a trillion dollars in Hollywood. The spread of the Indian cinema industry’s oeuvre is amazing. The films are shown in some 100 overseas markets, catalyzing the growth of trans-national creative networks, collaborations. Big studios Columbia, Disney and 20th Century Fox are now striking co-production deals with Indian companies.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Bollywood &amp; Pakistan:</strong></p>
<p>
	In the South Asian markets, especially in Pakistan and Bangladesh, Indian cinema was officially banned for long. However, that did not help the local entertainment industry and Indian cinema found pirated ways into the houses of people wanting the same.</p>
<p>
	The 1960s marked the high point of Pakistan’s film industry, when Abbot Road in Lahore filled with smart art-deco cinemas playing the latest colour offerings to packed houses. Today, the heart of movieland is dead. The 1998 hit Choorian briefly revived the industry. Its tale of a city boy who falls in love with a country girl promised to another man, was first dismissed by critics as derivate, but it proved a huge hit with movie audience who loved the way it pinched a proven Bollywood formula.</p>
<p>
	Pakistan had banned Indian films after going to war with its neighbor in 1965 but over the past few years, as relations between the nuclear-armed rivals have improved, authorities have been allowing a trickle of Indian films to be shown in cinemas. That has delighted movie fans and cinema operators but Pakistani film producers fear a flood of Indian films could mean the end of the local film industry.</p>
<p>
	However, in recent years some of Pakistan’s hottest talent has moved to Mumbai. Ali Zafar, one of the country’s biggest pop stars, made his Bollywood debut this year in Tere Bin Laden. Beena Malik, singers Nusrat Fateh Ali and Rahat Fateh Ali and many others are all too known. Add in a stagnating economy and criticism of Lollywood’s bawdy movies by Islamic groups, cinema in neighbouring India seems an attractive destination for young stars. Nilofar Bakhtiar, who chairs the Pakistan Senate’s standing committee on culture and tourism, suggested strengthening ties with Bollywood to help revive Lollywood’s fortunes, including film training opportunities. But the suggestion would lead to a faster exodus of talent to India, according to Qaisar Sanaullah Khan, secretary of the Pakistan Cinema Owners’ Association.</p>
<p>
	For long, competition from Bollywood fare as well as the mediocrity of Pakistani films means that many Pakistanis opt to stay at home and watch Indian movies on pirated DVDs. Cinemas have been struggling for years and many operators have given up and sold off their premises which have been converted into shopping centers or offices. From about 750 cinemas nationwide in the 1970s, there are now 300. But Indian films are breathing life back into Pakistani cinemas. Cinema operators are cashing in on the revival of interest in the cinema the Indian films have generated. Before screenings of Indian films began, a cinema ticket in Karachi cost less than 100 rupees. Now it is 150 rupees or more. Pakistani film distributors also welcome the revival of cinemas.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Bollywood &amp; Bangladesh:</strong></p>
<p>
	It’s official. After being exiled for 39 long years since 1972, Indian films were set to release in Bangladesh since late 2010. It’s no secret that Bollywood films are immensely popular across the border in Pakistan and Nepal, and Tamil films in Sri Lanka. However, thanks to protectionist measures by the Bangladesh government, Indian films have long been banned there. The rationale behind the ban that came into effect in 1972 after India won independence for them from Pakistan was to protect the fledgling Bangladeshi film industry. In theory, it was not a bad idea.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	But the lawmakers forgot one small thing. In the information age, getting access to Indian films through illegal means is extremely easy. And the Bangladesh audience prefers Indian films, as the high number of shops selling illegal DVDs and the small number of cinemas in Dhaka testify.</p>
<p>
	In January 2010, Bangladesh decided to allow the release of Indian films but this happy period lasted only six months as aggrieved local filmmakers cried foul and appealed against the decision. Thus, Indian films were banned again. Now, cinema owners, fed up with the lack of local interest in local fare, appealed to the court to allow Indian film imports and the courts have agreed, leading to official Bollywood releases in Bangladesh since September 2011.</p>
<p>
	First of all, in the age of globalization and free sky we cannot keep resisting foreign culture to creep into our society. The popularity of Hindi cinema is immense not only in Bangladesh but also across the world. And people around the world can easily get access to the cable and satellite television. Moreover, DVD and free download of movies from the internet have made it even easier for the middle and upper class viewers to enjoy Hindi or English movie at will. These alternatives do not include the marginal class of the society. The irony is the middle-class in the country rarely go to cinema hall to watch Bengali cinema or keep themselves updated about news and views of Dhaliwood. It is strongly believed that the target population of Bengali cinema is no other than the rickshaw pullers, garments workers and other wage labourers. The quality of Bangladesh cinema is quite understandable in terms of its technical aspects and storyline, which are not comparable with any other country’s cinema such as Indian, or even Pakistan and Nepal.</p>
<p>
	&nbsp;One can easily ask why the ‘cinema protectors’ do not protest against English cinema or Hindi cinema shown on satellite TV or in the internet. The reason is quite obvious. It is either their family members who are direct consumers of those sources or they have no hand to regulate the sky. But, they only can regulate the taste and fate of the marginal people and cinema halls as they wish.</p>
<p>
	Also, the concept of ‘culture’ is not so easy to understand what we perceive it to be. It has different facets and dimensions which can encompass time and space and influence people in another society. We use the concept ‘culture’ without much thought and conceptualize it which is why the concept remains a vague one in academia and even in the socio-political sphere. Dhaliwood producers and exhibitors are now understanding that if their own cinema quality falls and cannot evoke the audience to the cinema hall what will happen to some 800 cinema halls that still survive across the country?</p>
<p>
	<strong>Bollywood &amp; Nepal:</strong></p>
<p>
	The making of Nepali films is said to have begun with D.B. Pariyar’s Satya Harishchandra, which was the first Nepali-language film to be shot. It was produced from Kolkata, India, and was released on September 14, 1951. Aama (meaning mother) was the first film produced in Nepal and was released on October 7, 1964. It was produced by the Information Department of His Majesty’s Government of Nepal. The first film to be produced under a private banner was Maitighar, which was released at the end of 1966 by Sumonanjali Films Pvt. Ltd. Although it was a Nepali movie, it had many Indians contributing toward its making. The Nepal government established the Royal Nepal Film Corporation in 1971. Mann Ko Bandh was the first film produced by the corporation. It was followed by Kumari (the first Eastman color Nepali film) in 1978, Sindoor in 1980, and Jeevan Rekha in a series. Their success opened up the avenue for private parties to enter into filmmaking as an industrial endeavor.</p>
<p>
	In 1990, Nepal witnessed important political change. The people’s movement brought the monarchy to its knees and democracy was restored. The society started to become open and vibrant. This had an important consequence for the fledgling film industry: It began to grow rapidly or even to “bloat”. There was an unprecedented growth in the number of productions. Within three years, some 140 films were made. Distribution started to develop. Market share in the existing market increased and the market itself expanded. Cinema halls increased to more than 300. Nepali filmmakers became optimistic of displacing Hindi films, which had dominated the Nepali market earlier.</p>
<p>
	The start of the Maoist revolution in Nepal in the mid-1990s was the beginning of the downfall of the domestic film industry. There was an unwritten ban on Hindi films too for quite some time. In the period of war and conflict, a very small number of films were made, and audience numbers fell sharply. It resulted in lower budgets and even lower performances, which resulted in even smaller audiences. In the later years of the conflict, the production and release of Nepali films had almost come to a standstill. Many actors and filmmakers left the country in search for work abroad.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Also, during the 1990s, some filmmakers, mostly with non-fiction base, started championing a new kind of cinema. They denounced the crude imitation of Bollywood aesthetics and demanded indigenous aesthetics and a more realistic approach. They made some films which have received some critical acclaim at home and some international recognition. Historic movies like Balidaan and Seema Rekha made during this period were appreciated both by critics and audience.</p>
<p>
	By 2006, the situation in Nepal calmed down. With the Maoists coming into mainstream politics, the Nepali film industry started to return to its previous state. Today, more films are being made and released. The production companies and those in the industry are enthusiastic about the country’s new situation. The return of peace has opened more venues for the shooting of films, and the industry is seen to be making good use of this time to revive its image.</p>
<p>
	<span style="font-size: 12px;">New generation moviemakers geared up to make sensible cinema with entertainment rather than Bollywood inspired socio-actions. Kagbeni, Sano Sansar, Mero Euta Saathi Cha,First Love, Kohi Mero, etc. are some of the fine examples of quality cinema in terms of presentation, performance, story and technical superiority. However, they lacked in connecting with the audience. In January 2012, a film named Loot was released which emerged as a blockbuster. It was also the first movie in decades to be screened more than 100 days in the cinema halls. Much recently Chapali Height broke opening weekend gross by earning 8.4 million at the box office, breaking one of the records held by Loot, but Loot still holds the distinction of the highest grosser by far.</span></p>
<p>
	After banning Hindi films in 2012, the breakaway faction of Maoists led by Mohan Baidya was forced to withdraw the ban within a few weeks ahead of the festive season. The party had imposed a ban on ‘vulgar’ Hindi movies in a bid to ‘safeguard national sovereignty’ and ‘promote a self-reliant economy’. Multiplexes and single screen theatres in Kathmandu began screening ‘Barfi’, ‘Heroine’, ‘Oh My God’ and ‘Kamal Dhamal Malamaal’---Hindi movies which were released before screening was stopped.</p>
<p>
	Due to the ban hall owners were either forced to down shutters or screen Nepali movies in few screens on discounted rates. But the response from movie goers was not enthusiastic. Movie halls incurred losses valued at nearly NRs 2.5 crore ( Rs. 1.5 crore approx) during the 10 days from October 1 to October 10, according to Ashok Sarma, managing director of Digital Cinema.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Conclusions:</strong></p>
<p>
	Given the complex reality of globalization in the age of free information and entertainment, we need to reconsider our cultural boundary and perception very seriously. Before anything else, we need to be more logically political and less emotionally cultural.</p>
<p>
	“Filmmaking is like a nuclear power. If used properly, it can immensely help mankind. And if misused, it can destroy many minds,” says the noted alternative film-maker of Assamese origin, Jahnu Barua. There can be cross-cultural flow through cinema across South Asia and this can help develop people-to-people relations.</p>
<p>
	Often the anti-woman or commodification of sex and violence through a large number of Bollywood films are questioned by critics in other South Asian nations. And rightly so. “It’s the job of cinema to condemn inexcusable social realities and portray reality as it ought to be — only a lazy film maker will claim that it’s impossible to do both while remaining entertaining and commercially viable,” says Anna MM Vetticad, author of The Adventures of an Intrepid Film Critic. A trip to the cinema can easily be a lesson in how to objectify women: skimpy clothes, close-ups of bare midriffs and of course, ‘item numbers’. Post the December 16 Delhi gangrape, the lyrics of the Fevicol se &nbsp;song came under fire. &nbsp;However, it is important to celebrate some changes for the positive as well. Though unable to entirely shrug off their unease of independent or ambitious women (think the climax of Cocktail or Fashion), recent movies have given us heroines who are vocal and free-spirited. Movies such as Aiyya frankly depict female desire. Even sexiness is no longer the preserve of the Sheilas or the Chikni Chamelis. In Zoya Akhtar’s Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara, Katrina Kaif is presented as beautiful, attractive but the camera doesn’t letch at her.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Further, film talent training, giving boost to film exhibition revenue, and creating production standards to achieve by allowing Indian Cinema can easily be the benefits in other South Asian nations.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	This is not to say that there should not be any form of protection given to local film industry and talent. Make shows of local cinema compulsory in certain time-slots, by law. Allow local block-busters to be screened in prime time too, through market forces. Let local media adequately publicize the local cinema and its talent. Let tax rebates be given to local cinema and higher entertainment taxes on Bollywood cinema. Co-opt and legalize the income coming in, do not ban and languish in revenue.</p>
<p>
	Further, let there be institutional ways of promoting South Asian cinema within India too: through South Asian Film Festivals, workshops, day-time shows in certain markets (depending on the language spoken in those markets). Pakistani Urdu based films would go well in select halls of Lucknow, Hyderabad, Mumbai and even Delhi. Nepali films will have a good market in eastern and north-eastern India specifically. Bangladeshi films are being released in West Bengal routinely. The trend needs to be encouraged further through institutional and media efforts to this end.</p>
<div>
	<span style="font-size:10px;">(The author is former Dean of Symbiosis International University and President of the advisory board at Whistling Woods School of Communication, Mumbai.)</span></div>
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	<strong>By Prof Ujjwal K Chowdhury</strong></p>
<p>
	<strong>Impending Elections</strong></p>
<p>
	General Elections are due in Pakistan in May 2013, being discussed for June 2013 in Nepal, are expected in late this year in Bangladesh and Maldives, and are scheduled for early 2014 in India (which can be preponed) and are in 2015 in Sri Lanka (which also can be preponed in the light of intense internal conflicts between Buddhist Sinhalese majority and Tamil Hindu and Muslim Sinhalese minorities).</p>
<p>
	Hence, within next 12 to 15 months, South Asia is surely up for a different scenario, hopefully qualitatively different too from what it is now.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Scenario Today</strong></p>
<p>
	The largest nation of the region, India, is virtually plagued with policy paralysis for quite some time now, the ruling dispensation facing serious corruption charges and being at the mercy of belligerent allies. With rise of Modi within BJP polarizing the electorate, and larger states of India being ruled by regional forces, the political scenario is ambiguous just now. The ensuing elections to state assemblies in Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Rajasthan will throw some light on the political finals of General Elections.</p>
<p>
	Pakistan, for quite some time, has been an ungoverned and ungovernable state with terrorist and radical Islamic forces controlling certain parts of the country, youth force behind an aggressive political posturing by Imran Khan and his Tehreeq-E-Insaaf Party, anti-corruption movement led by the Pakistani crusader Muhammad Tahir ul Qadri being on, Nawaz Sharief’s Muslim League threatened as former military strongman Pervez Musharraf returns to activate his similarly positioned All Pakistan Muslim League, and ruling PPP plagued with corruption and incompetence, with army no signs of relenting ‘real power’ to the democratically elected forces.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Sri Lanka is moving from one round of ethnic cleansing of Tamil Hindus to another round, and this time of Sinhalese Muslims. Majority Buddhist Sinhalese nationalism is on the rise and doubts are being expressed about the survival of multi-party and multi-ethnic secular democracy in that country.</p>
<p>
	Bangladesh is in the throes of a bitter conflict between radical Islamists and Islamic political forces, represented by BNP-Jamaat alliance on one side and the liberal Awami League and left wing forces on the other, with the ruling Awami League floundering at every step. The conflict has permeated into culture, media, places of worship, street fights, rallies, violence, et al, and recent violence before and after Shahbaug protests by the secularists has taken more than 80 lives so far.</p>
<p>
	<img alt="Birendra International Convention Center, BICC, South Asia" src="http://www.newbusinessage.com/ckfinder/userfiles/Images/south_asia_May2013_bicc.jpg" style="float:left; margin:0 10px 0 0;" />Nepal is in its stage of political indecisiveness just now, having put in place an electoral government led by the sitting Chief Justice and some bureaucrats as ministers, but no election date and proper Election Commission still in place.</p>
<p>
	Maldives is divided bitterly, akin to Bangladesh, between the ruling Islamic political forces led by current President Mohamed Waheed Hussain Manik and the opposing liberal secular forces of former President Mohamed Nausheed, with India intervening on behalf of Nausheed recently. The difference is, unlike Bangladesh, the Islamic political forces are ruling Maldives ousting the democratically elected Nausheed’s government in a bloodless coup.</p>
<p>
	In effect, South Asia today is completely in a state of flux and uncertainty and the next 15 months are expected to ascertain the contours of the region for the next half a decade or more.</p>
<p>
	<strong>India@2014</strong></p>
<p>
	<img alt="Narendra Modi, BJP, South Asia" height="236" src="http://www.newbusinessage.com/ckfinder/userfiles/Images/south_asia_May2013_narendra_modi.jpg" style="float:right; margin:0 0 0 10px;" width="350" />For the first time in a decade, India’s GDP growth has come below 5% in a year from as high as 9% a few years back. Price-rise, corruption, civil society activism, regional forces, discontent with the Centre: all have been on the rise unabated across the last three years, and larger part of the thinking-talking-arguing middle class is sure that Congress led UPA is sure to be defeated in the next election, and may even prepone the polls to avoid complete washout.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	BJP has turned backwards, bringing to the fore all Hindutva radical faces like Uma Bharati, Vinay Katiyar, Varun Gandhi, Amit Shah, Kalyan Singh and expecting to blend this majority-ism with the good governance record and personal charisma of Narendra Modi along with pro-farmer approach of Sushma Swaraj and Rajnath Singh on Land Acquisition Bill, and create an infallible force to win 200 seats in some 545 member Lok Sabha, and then manage to come to power with old (Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, etc) and new (AIADMK, TDP, etc) allies.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Pakistan@2014</strong></p>
<p>
	<img alt="Imran Khan, South Asia" height="242" src="http://www.newbusinessage.com/ckfinder/userfiles/Images/south_asia_May2013_imran_khan.jpg" style="float:left; margin:0 10px 0 0;" width="350" />If you talk to youths on the streets of Karachi or Islamabad, Imran Khan is all set to make a thundering entry into power as the next PM of Pakistan. If you talk to the people in 40s and 50s, they are confused. Surely they expect PPP to be defeated after a spate of poor governance, but Musharraf and Nawaz Sharief battling for the rightist votes will only brighten prospects of PPP unless Imran Khan really makes the tide of the youths into that of the nation.</p>
<p>
	<strong><br />
	</strong></p>
<p>
	<strong>Maldives and Bangladesh@2014</strong></p>
<p>
	Free and fair elections in these countries and tacit role of India may ensure liberal forces of Nausheed in Maldives and Sheikh Haseena in Bangladesh to once again win. However, mobilization of the rural masses and Arabs funded radical Islamic forces may turn the apple-curt and retain power in Male and capture it in Dhaka.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Sri Lanka@2015</strong></p>
<p>
	Given the fact that the army stands solidly behind President Rajapakshye and the international community has limited role in the internal affairs of the island nation, while India’s role is curbed due to growing SL-China relations, the current rulers are expected to bulldoze all opposition and retain power in Colombo whenever the elections are conducted there.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Nepal@2014:</strong></p>
<p>
	The biggest question first is whether the elections will be held, if not in June, at least within November next, and if a popularly elected Constituent Assembly and thereby the government will come to power. Second, if elections are being held, whenever, whether they will be free and fair. Then, after elections, if at all any political force or coalition gets clear majority. Given the situation on ground today, ruling Maoists along with their Madhesi allies may be the largest political bloc, short of majority, while the rest of the opposition, together though a majority, may never come as a single bloc. &nbsp;</p>
<p>
	<strong>Alternative Scenario in South Asia by 2014</strong></p>
<p>
	Politics is the art of the impossible and science of changing human behaviour. So, there could be another scenario, come 2014.</p>
<p>
	Narendra Modi led BJP may enthuse the party and voters in a large number of states partly on development agenda and partly on nationalistic slogans and come to power in India with a clear majority (also with minor support from known allies). Nausheed captures power in Maldives and Haseena retains the same in Bangladesh with clear majority again. A Sinhalese opposition leader (e.g. former army chief Sharath Fonseka) with support of India, Tamils, Muslims and a part of Sinhalese people, captures power in a preponed elections in SL in 2014. Maoists-Madheshis get clear majority in CA and government in Nepal. Imran Khan does the apparently impossible feat of coming to power in Pakistan riding a wave of youth support.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	If this scenario happens and with comfortable majorities in each of these South Asian nations, which is also a probable scenario which, therefore, ensures 5 years of undeterred decision governance, the region may see the realization of its economic potentials.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Economic Potentials</strong></p>
<p>
	India has huge trading potentials in the region, hampered by regional skirmishes and conflicts, which can reduce if the alternative scenario above happens. Look East Policy will help India develop international trade and commerce with Bangladesh, Burma and Nepal to the benefit of all. Destructive competition on jute and agro-based products between India and Bangladesh can be reduced.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Tourism in Maldives and Nepal can get a major fillip with peace and liberal regimes coming in these nations. In fact, Indian tourism has much more potentials with liberal visa regimes with Pakistan and Bangladesh as well.</p>
<p>
	Textiles, automobiles, food-grains et al can be traded cheaper, better, faster within the region with political stability returning. Foreign Direct Investments within the region can sharply increase as well with right welcoming policies in place in these countries.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Movement of students, cheaper educational options in the region, and regional cooperation on skills development will be another major area of development.</p>
<p>
	Energy Security in South Asia is bound to increase with Nepal’s huge hydro-power potentials being realized more and India’s immense solar power possibilities explore further (which anyway is a pet project of Narendra Modi).</p>
<p>
	Indo-Pak economic relations are with immense benefits to both the nations. India gets oil from Iran with stress and high costs due to non-cooperation from Pakistan and Pakistan imports several items of daily use and infra-structural growth from the West at a much higher costs than what it can get from India.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	The entire region needs a tremendous infra-structural push, banking and investments development, rise of social entrepreneurship, and value addition to their agricultural produce. In each of these areas, the South Asian nations have a lot to share if they learn to look at each other positively.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<p>
	Change is the spice of life. Irrespective of whether the status quo looks insurmountable, we must look at possibilities positively. South Asia has one-fifths of the world’s population, rich heritage and is the birth-place of Buddhism, Sikhism, Jainism, Hinduism and various forms of animism. South Asia has world’s largest water-resource, highest peaks, longest coastal range, huge solar power reserves. South Asia’s demographic is the youngest in the world, a large number of them being English educated, IT savvy, secular, and democratic in attitude.</p>
<p>
	Mutually cooperative South Asia has a much larger dividend than the current region marred with conflicts and tensions.</p>
<p>
	<span style="font-size:10px;">The author is former Dean of Symbiosis International University and President of the advisory board at Whistling Woods School of Communication, Mumbai.</span></p>',
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	 </p>
<p>
	<strong>By Prof Ujjwal K Chowdhury</strong></p>
<p>
	The tallest leader in the main opposition party of India, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), today is undoubtedly Narendra Modi. The pressures of the people at the rank and file of the party has already forced the disconnected national leadership to come scurrying to Modi to lead the party at the centre, and soon he will be its Prime Ministerial candidate for the general elections in 2014. As a New Nepal is expected to emerge from the polls of 2013, Indian General Elections of 2014 (which may be earlier than scheduled) may give rise to a New India under Modi, with implications for Nepal as well in South Asia.</p>
<p>
	<img alt="South Asia, New Business Age" height="317" src="http://newbusinessage.com/ckfinder/userfiles/Images/south_asia_april2013_narendra.jpg" style="float:left; margin:0 10px 0 0;" width="350" /></p>
<p>
	<strong>Modi’s Journey: Version 2.0:</strong></p>
<p>
	The journey of this single resolute man at the top of Gujarat’s affairs started as a Pracharak of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) in the first stage of his public life. He was deputed to Gujarat politics to quell the conflict between the Kesubhai Patel and Shankersinh Vaghela factions of BJP some twelve years ago, signalling the start of version 2.0 of his public life.</p>
<p>
	Since then, for a dozen years, he has refrained from going to Delhi much, completely disassociated himself from national politics of BJP and focussed on Gujarat to ensure his third consecutive victory in Gujarat Assembly elections as recently as on December 20, 2012.</p>
<p>
	That he will win the elections for BJP was a foregone conclusion. Question was of the margin. His focus was purely on economic development, and he played it to the hilt, with the glamour of 3D technologies and the force of social media apart from mainstream media.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Presently, Gujarat holds around 30 per cent of India’s stock market capitalisation, contributes 22 per cent of the total exports and about 9.5 per cent of the country’s total work force. Gujarat is also a power surplus state, providing electricity even to the villages.The state has registered more than 12% agriculture growth in the last five years against the national average of 2%.</p>
<p>
	The per capita income at constant prices has shown robust growth in the past five years. There is also a major thrust on infrastructure. The development of ports and port-based investment activity is an instance. There is also a plan for shipbuilding parks along the coastline.</p>
<p>
	Hence, the development slogan, soft Hindutva through Vivekananda Yatra and no tickets to minorities, a techno-savvy one person, one agenda focussed campaign paid off yielding a rich dividend of 115 MLAs for BJP in a House of 182 MLAs.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Modi’s Journey: Version 3.0:&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p>
	<strong>The 10-point Road-map:</strong></p>
<p>
	The most interesting now will be to watch the roadmap that Modi takes in his third and most crucial and challenging phase in public and political life.</p>
<p>
	First, managing home. Gujarat is his home-turf. But now to move to the Centre, he has to leave a legacy that symbolizes him in every sense. Significantly, he has kept his Cabinet small, and has at least two favourites in significant positions for grooming a future CM (and if needed, a Deputy CM too): Saurabh Patel and Anandiben Patel.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Second, managing the Sangh Pariwar. He cannot afford to alienate Nagpur, which still holds a veto power in the Sangh Parivar. As his popularity soars, RSS under Mohan Bhagwat may be left with no choice but rally behind its extra-ordinary Swayamsevak. But Modi would do well to keep Bhagwat in good humour at this stage.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Third, managing the NDA. It is almost certain that JD (United) of Nitish Kumar-Sharad Yadav shall leave NDA if Modi is the front-man. But, Modi has his own dark horses: Jayalalitha led AIADMK, Naveen Patnaik led BJD, Uddhav led Shiv Sena and Raj led MNS in Maharashtra are sure to through their weight behind Modi which will outgrow the strength of JD(U) concentrated in Bihar alone. Interestingly, BS Yediyurappa, the beleaguered rebel BJP leader who has just set up Karnataka Janata Party, may stage a comeback if Modi is the central leader of BJP.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Fourth, managing minorities. What Modi needs to guard is not to create an anti-minority image any further, rather focus on non-appeasement anti-votebank all-people development agenda, being silent on minority-focused discourse in Indian politics in his interests.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Fifth, managing the riot-image and legal cases. Herein again, silence is golden. One partial statement after Gujarat victory this time was itself a good strategy, “Forgive me if I have done any mistake”. This is the best policy: being humble but not talking about the past and riots. Vengeance is a measure for lesser mortals.</p>
<p>
	Sixth, creating symbolisms. It will be a great move for Modi to seek election to the Parliament from Lucknow, which elected Atal Behari Vajpayee several times. Symbolically strong, this will rejuvenate BJP in Uttar Pradesh, bring in Kalyan Singh at the centre-stage in UP, and lead to soft Hindutva polarization in favour of BJP in most of the Hindi heartland.</p>
<p>
	Seventh, strengthening mass constituencies. In 2014, the dominant section of the electorate shall be young people below 35 years of age. The electorate between 18 and 35 years of age are expected to be above 40% of the voters, and in case of a good franchise, the younger voters are expected to be participating more. Modi has succeeded tremendously with the youth in Gujarat ensuring a hat-trick of victories. If he can put forth a viable plan for Young India, package and communicate it in a techno-savvy way (for which he is well-known), and make it caste and community-neutral, he is assured of a huge support herein.</p>
<p>
	Eighth, harnessing the woman-power. Half the young people are women, and a large part of elder women are dependent emotionally and financially on the younger population. Also, Modi’s personal charisma, single status, and a straight talking image et al go well with the women. He, however, will need to walk the talk on women’s safety issues which is the major concern for a large number of vocal women,both urban and rural.</p>
<p>
	Ninth, envisioning an Alternative India. Herein lies the major creative challenge to Moditva. If he can change the discourse of Indian politics from divisive identity to development issues, from regional parochialism to a uniform Indian-ness, from Western outlook to political language to a pride in everything Indian, he has made a great start to this third phase in his political journey. He has started this through his recent speeches, first in Sriram College in Delhi and more recently in the India Today Conclave.</p>
<p>
	Tenth, and finally, creating a global image and acceptability. While Vibrant Gujarat has given Modi the global image of a productive performing leader, and Indian diaspora looks up to him for a national leadership role now, he still needs to politically cultivate major global forces and global Indians more. Hence, formal and informal channels need to be evolved through visits, use of media, receiving delegations, use of global Indian bodies, et al, which position Modi as the undisputable leader whom the nation has been waiting for long.</p>
<p>
	<span style="font-size:10px;">The author is former Dean of Symbiosis International University and President of the advisory board at Whistling Woods School of Communication, Mumbai.</span></p>',
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	<em>Indian Cinema has turned a hundred years. And as it grew in shape, size, craft, value and visibility globally, it had love-hate relations in the South Asian region, whether in Nepal, Pakistan and Bangladesh. How have the relations of Bollywood with people and governments in South Asia evolved?</em></p>
<p>
	<strong>The 100 Years and Journey So Far</strong></p>
<p>
	Indian Cinema, not Bollywood, has completed a hundred years in May 2013, considering the release of the Marathi classic Raja Harischandra by father of Indian cinema, Dada Saheb Phalke, in May 1913 as the inception of Indian Cinema. Though the global face of Indian Cinema is surely Bollywood, the large-scale Hindi films from Mumbai, there are much more to the art and craft of cinema from India, specially the films in Malayalam, Bengali, Marathi, Tamil and Telugu languages. The non-Hindi films from India are equal in number and value of business to the Hindi films, all totaling some 1200 films in 2012 bringing in some USD 3.6 billion revenue. This is more than double the number of films produced by Hollywood though the revenue is more than a trillion dollars in Hollywood. The spread of the Indian cinema industry’s oeuvre is amazing. The films are shown in some 100 overseas markets, catalyzing the growth of trans-national creative networks, collaborations. Big studios Columbia, Disney and 20th Century Fox are now striking co-production deals with Indian companies.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Bollywood &amp; Pakistan:</strong></p>
<p>
	In the South Asian markets, especially in Pakistan and Bangladesh, Indian cinema was officially banned for long. However, that did not help the local entertainment industry and Indian cinema found pirated ways into the houses of people wanting the same.</p>
<p>
	The 1960s marked the high point of Pakistan’s film industry, when Abbot Road in Lahore filled with smart art-deco cinemas playing the latest colour offerings to packed houses. Today, the heart of movieland is dead. The 1998 hit Choorian briefly revived the industry. Its tale of a city boy who falls in love with a country girl promised to another man, was first dismissed by critics as derivate, but it proved a huge hit with movie audience who loved the way it pinched a proven Bollywood formula.</p>
<p>
	Pakistan had banned Indian films after going to war with its neighbor in 1965 but over the past few years, as relations between the nuclear-armed rivals have improved, authorities have been allowing a trickle of Indian films to be shown in cinemas. That has delighted movie fans and cinema operators but Pakistani film producers fear a flood of Indian films could mean the end of the local film industry.</p>
<p>
	However, in recent years some of Pakistan’s hottest talent has moved to Mumbai. Ali Zafar, one of the country’s biggest pop stars, made his Bollywood debut this year in Tere Bin Laden. Beena Malik, singers Nusrat Fateh Ali and Rahat Fateh Ali and many others are all too known. Add in a stagnating economy and criticism of Lollywood’s bawdy movies by Islamic groups, cinema in neighbouring India seems an attractive destination for young stars. Nilofar Bakhtiar, who chairs the Pakistan Senate’s standing committee on culture and tourism, suggested strengthening ties with Bollywood to help revive Lollywood’s fortunes, including film training opportunities. But the suggestion would lead to a faster exodus of talent to India, according to Qaisar Sanaullah Khan, secretary of the Pakistan Cinema Owners’ Association.</p>
<p>
	For long, competition from Bollywood fare as well as the mediocrity of Pakistani films means that many Pakistanis opt to stay at home and watch Indian movies on pirated DVDs. Cinemas have been struggling for years and many operators have given up and sold off their premises which have been converted into shopping centers or offices. From about 750 cinemas nationwide in the 1970s, there are now 300. But Indian films are breathing life back into Pakistani cinemas. Cinema operators are cashing in on the revival of interest in the cinema the Indian films have generated. Before screenings of Indian films began, a cinema ticket in Karachi cost less than 100 rupees. Now it is 150 rupees or more. Pakistani film distributors also welcome the revival of cinemas.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Bollywood &amp; Bangladesh:</strong></p>
<p>
	It’s official. After being exiled for 39 long years since 1972, Indian films were set to release in Bangladesh since late 2010. It’s no secret that Bollywood films are immensely popular across the border in Pakistan and Nepal, and Tamil films in Sri Lanka. However, thanks to protectionist measures by the Bangladesh government, Indian films have long been banned there. The rationale behind the ban that came into effect in 1972 after India won independence for them from Pakistan was to protect the fledgling Bangladeshi film industry. In theory, it was not a bad idea.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	But the lawmakers forgot one small thing. In the information age, getting access to Indian films through illegal means is extremely easy. And the Bangladesh audience prefers Indian films, as the high number of shops selling illegal DVDs and the small number of cinemas in Dhaka testify.</p>
<p>
	In January 2010, Bangladesh decided to allow the release of Indian films but this happy period lasted only six months as aggrieved local filmmakers cried foul and appealed against the decision. Thus, Indian films were banned again. Now, cinema owners, fed up with the lack of local interest in local fare, appealed to the court to allow Indian film imports and the courts have agreed, leading to official Bollywood releases in Bangladesh since September 2011.</p>
<p>
	First of all, in the age of globalization and free sky we cannot keep resisting foreign culture to creep into our society. The popularity of Hindi cinema is immense not only in Bangladesh but also across the world. And people around the world can easily get access to the cable and satellite television. Moreover, DVD and free download of movies from the internet have made it even easier for the middle and upper class viewers to enjoy Hindi or English movie at will. These alternatives do not include the marginal class of the society. The irony is the middle-class in the country rarely go to cinema hall to watch Bengali cinema or keep themselves updated about news and views of Dhaliwood. It is strongly believed that the target population of Bengali cinema is no other than the rickshaw pullers, garments workers and other wage labourers. The quality of Bangladesh cinema is quite understandable in terms of its technical aspects and storyline, which are not comparable with any other country’s cinema such as Indian, or even Pakistan and Nepal.</p>
<p>
	&nbsp;One can easily ask why the ‘cinema protectors’ do not protest against English cinema or Hindi cinema shown on satellite TV or in the internet. The reason is quite obvious. It is either their family members who are direct consumers of those sources or they have no hand to regulate the sky. But, they only can regulate the taste and fate of the marginal people and cinema halls as they wish.</p>
<p>
	Also, the concept of ‘culture’ is not so easy to understand what we perceive it to be. It has different facets and dimensions which can encompass time and space and influence people in another society. We use the concept ‘culture’ without much thought and conceptualize it which is why the concept remains a vague one in academia and even in the socio-political sphere. Dhaliwood producers and exhibitors are now understanding that if their own cinema quality falls and cannot evoke the audience to the cinema hall what will happen to some 800 cinema halls that still survive across the country?</p>
<p>
	<strong>Bollywood &amp; Nepal:</strong></p>
<p>
	The making of Nepali films is said to have begun with D.B. Pariyar’s Satya Harishchandra, which was the first Nepali-language film to be shot. It was produced from Kolkata, India, and was released on September 14, 1951. Aama (meaning mother) was the first film produced in Nepal and was released on October 7, 1964. It was produced by the Information Department of His Majesty’s Government of Nepal. The first film to be produced under a private banner was Maitighar, which was released at the end of 1966 by Sumonanjali Films Pvt. Ltd. Although it was a Nepali movie, it had many Indians contributing toward its making. The Nepal government established the Royal Nepal Film Corporation in 1971. Mann Ko Bandh was the first film produced by the corporation. It was followed by Kumari (the first Eastman color Nepali film) in 1978, Sindoor in 1980, and Jeevan Rekha in a series. Their success opened up the avenue for private parties to enter into filmmaking as an industrial endeavor.</p>
<p>
	In 1990, Nepal witnessed important political change. The people’s movement brought the monarchy to its knees and democracy was restored. The society started to become open and vibrant. This had an important consequence for the fledgling film industry: It began to grow rapidly or even to “bloat”. There was an unprecedented growth in the number of productions. Within three years, some 140 films were made. Distribution started to develop. Market share in the existing market increased and the market itself expanded. Cinema halls increased to more than 300. Nepali filmmakers became optimistic of displacing Hindi films, which had dominated the Nepali market earlier.</p>
<p>
	The start of the Maoist revolution in Nepal in the mid-1990s was the beginning of the downfall of the domestic film industry. There was an unwritten ban on Hindi films too for quite some time. In the period of war and conflict, a very small number of films were made, and audience numbers fell sharply. It resulted in lower budgets and even lower performances, which resulted in even smaller audiences. In the later years of the conflict, the production and release of Nepali films had almost come to a standstill. Many actors and filmmakers left the country in search for work abroad.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Also, during the 1990s, some filmmakers, mostly with non-fiction base, started championing a new kind of cinema. They denounced the crude imitation of Bollywood aesthetics and demanded indigenous aesthetics and a more realistic approach. They made some films which have received some critical acclaim at home and some international recognition. Historic movies like Balidaan and Seema Rekha made during this period were appreciated both by critics and audience.</p>
<p>
	By 2006, the situation in Nepal calmed down. With the Maoists coming into mainstream politics, the Nepali film industry started to return to its previous state. Today, more films are being made and released. The production companies and those in the industry are enthusiastic about the country’s new situation. The return of peace has opened more venues for the shooting of films, and the industry is seen to be making good use of this time to revive its image.</p>
<p>
	<span style="font-size: 12px;">New generation moviemakers geared up to make sensible cinema with entertainment rather than Bollywood inspired socio-actions. Kagbeni, Sano Sansar, Mero Euta Saathi Cha,First Love, Kohi Mero, etc. are some of the fine examples of quality cinema in terms of presentation, performance, story and technical superiority. However, they lacked in connecting with the audience. In January 2012, a film named Loot was released which emerged as a blockbuster. It was also the first movie in decades to be screened more than 100 days in the cinema halls. Much recently Chapali Height broke opening weekend gross by earning 8.4 million at the box office, breaking one of the records held by Loot, but Loot still holds the distinction of the highest grosser by far.</span></p>
<p>
	After banning Hindi films in 2012, the breakaway faction of Maoists led by Mohan Baidya was forced to withdraw the ban within a few weeks ahead of the festive season. The party had imposed a ban on ‘vulgar’ Hindi movies in a bid to ‘safeguard national sovereignty’ and ‘promote a self-reliant economy’. Multiplexes and single screen theatres in Kathmandu began screening ‘Barfi’, ‘Heroine’, ‘Oh My God’ and ‘Kamal Dhamal Malamaal’---Hindi movies which were released before screening was stopped.</p>
<p>
	Due to the ban hall owners were either forced to down shutters or screen Nepali movies in few screens on discounted rates. But the response from movie goers was not enthusiastic. Movie halls incurred losses valued at nearly NRs 2.5 crore ( Rs. 1.5 crore approx) during the 10 days from October 1 to October 10, according to Ashok Sarma, managing director of Digital Cinema.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Conclusions:</strong></p>
<p>
	Given the complex reality of globalization in the age of free information and entertainment, we need to reconsider our cultural boundary and perception very seriously. Before anything else, we need to be more logically political and less emotionally cultural.</p>
<p>
	“Filmmaking is like a nuclear power. If used properly, it can immensely help mankind. And if misused, it can destroy many minds,” says the noted alternative film-maker of Assamese origin, Jahnu Barua. There can be cross-cultural flow through cinema across South Asia and this can help develop people-to-people relations.</p>
<p>
	Often the anti-woman or commodification of sex and violence through a large number of Bollywood films are questioned by critics in other South Asian nations. And rightly so. “It’s the job of cinema to condemn inexcusable social realities and portray reality as it ought to be — only a lazy film maker will claim that it’s impossible to do both while remaining entertaining and commercially viable,” says Anna MM Vetticad, author of The Adventures of an Intrepid Film Critic. A trip to the cinema can easily be a lesson in how to objectify women: skimpy clothes, close-ups of bare midriffs and of course, ‘item numbers’. Post the December 16 Delhi gangrape, the lyrics of the Fevicol se &nbsp;song came under fire. &nbsp;However, it is important to celebrate some changes for the positive as well. Though unable to entirely shrug off their unease of independent or ambitious women (think the climax of Cocktail or Fashion), recent movies have given us heroines who are vocal and free-spirited. Movies such as Aiyya frankly depict female desire. Even sexiness is no longer the preserve of the Sheilas or the Chikni Chamelis. In Zoya Akhtar’s Zindagi Na Milegi Dobara, Katrina Kaif is presented as beautiful, attractive but the camera doesn’t letch at her.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Further, film talent training, giving boost to film exhibition revenue, and creating production standards to achieve by allowing Indian Cinema can easily be the benefits in other South Asian nations.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	This is not to say that there should not be any form of protection given to local film industry and talent. Make shows of local cinema compulsory in certain time-slots, by law. Allow local block-busters to be screened in prime time too, through market forces. Let local media adequately publicize the local cinema and its talent. Let tax rebates be given to local cinema and higher entertainment taxes on Bollywood cinema. Co-opt and legalize the income coming in, do not ban and languish in revenue.</p>
<p>
	Further, let there be institutional ways of promoting South Asian cinema within India too: through South Asian Film Festivals, workshops, day-time shows in certain markets (depending on the language spoken in those markets). Pakistani Urdu based films would go well in select halls of Lucknow, Hyderabad, Mumbai and even Delhi. Nepali films will have a good market in eastern and north-eastern India specifically. Bangladeshi films are being released in West Bengal routinely. The trend needs to be encouraged further through institutional and media efforts to this end.</p>
<div>
	<span style="font-size:10px;">(The author is former Dean of Symbiosis International University and President of the advisory board at Whistling Woods School of Communication, Mumbai.)</span></div>
<div>
	<span style="font-size:10px;"><br />
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			'description' => 'Indian Cinema has turned a hundred years. And as it grew in shape, size, craft, value and visibility globally, it had love-hate relations in the South Asian region, whether in Nepal, Pakistan and Bangladesh. How have the relations of Bollywood with people and governments in South Asia evolved?',
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	<strong>By Prof Ujjwal K Chowdhury</strong></p>
<p>
	<strong>Impending Elections</strong></p>
<p>
	General Elections are due in Pakistan in May 2013, being discussed for June 2013 in Nepal, are expected in late this year in Bangladesh and Maldives, and are scheduled for early 2014 in India (which can be preponed) and are in 2015 in Sri Lanka (which also can be preponed in the light of intense internal conflicts between Buddhist Sinhalese majority and Tamil Hindu and Muslim Sinhalese minorities).</p>
<p>
	Hence, within next 12 to 15 months, South Asia is surely up for a different scenario, hopefully qualitatively different too from what it is now.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Scenario Today</strong></p>
<p>
	The largest nation of the region, India, is virtually plagued with policy paralysis for quite some time now, the ruling dispensation facing serious corruption charges and being at the mercy of belligerent allies. With rise of Modi within BJP polarizing the electorate, and larger states of India being ruled by regional forces, the political scenario is ambiguous just now. The ensuing elections to state assemblies in Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Rajasthan will throw some light on the political finals of General Elections.</p>
<p>
	Pakistan, for quite some time, has been an ungoverned and ungovernable state with terrorist and radical Islamic forces controlling certain parts of the country, youth force behind an aggressive political posturing by Imran Khan and his Tehreeq-E-Insaaf Party, anti-corruption movement led by the Pakistani crusader Muhammad Tahir ul Qadri being on, Nawaz Sharief’s Muslim League threatened as former military strongman Pervez Musharraf returns to activate his similarly positioned All Pakistan Muslim League, and ruling PPP plagued with corruption and incompetence, with army no signs of relenting ‘real power’ to the democratically elected forces.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Sri Lanka is moving from one round of ethnic cleansing of Tamil Hindus to another round, and this time of Sinhalese Muslims. Majority Buddhist Sinhalese nationalism is on the rise and doubts are being expressed about the survival of multi-party and multi-ethnic secular democracy in that country.</p>
<p>
	Bangladesh is in the throes of a bitter conflict between radical Islamists and Islamic political forces, represented by BNP-Jamaat alliance on one side and the liberal Awami League and left wing forces on the other, with the ruling Awami League floundering at every step. The conflict has permeated into culture, media, places of worship, street fights, rallies, violence, et al, and recent violence before and after Shahbaug protests by the secularists has taken more than 80 lives so far.</p>
<p>
	<img alt="Birendra International Convention Center, BICC, South Asia" src="http://www.newbusinessage.com/ckfinder/userfiles/Images/south_asia_May2013_bicc.jpg" style="float:left; margin:0 10px 0 0;" />Nepal is in its stage of political indecisiveness just now, having put in place an electoral government led by the sitting Chief Justice and some bureaucrats as ministers, but no election date and proper Election Commission still in place.</p>
<p>
	Maldives is divided bitterly, akin to Bangladesh, between the ruling Islamic political forces led by current President Mohamed Waheed Hussain Manik and the opposing liberal secular forces of former President Mohamed Nausheed, with India intervening on behalf of Nausheed recently. The difference is, unlike Bangladesh, the Islamic political forces are ruling Maldives ousting the democratically elected Nausheed’s government in a bloodless coup.</p>
<p>
	In effect, South Asia today is completely in a state of flux and uncertainty and the next 15 months are expected to ascertain the contours of the region for the next half a decade or more.</p>
<p>
	<strong>India@2014</strong></p>
<p>
	<img alt="Narendra Modi, BJP, South Asia" height="236" src="http://www.newbusinessage.com/ckfinder/userfiles/Images/south_asia_May2013_narendra_modi.jpg" style="float:right; margin:0 0 0 10px;" width="350" />For the first time in a decade, India’s GDP growth has come below 5% in a year from as high as 9% a few years back. Price-rise, corruption, civil society activism, regional forces, discontent with the Centre: all have been on the rise unabated across the last three years, and larger part of the thinking-talking-arguing middle class is sure that Congress led UPA is sure to be defeated in the next election, and may even prepone the polls to avoid complete washout.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	BJP has turned backwards, bringing to the fore all Hindutva radical faces like Uma Bharati, Vinay Katiyar, Varun Gandhi, Amit Shah, Kalyan Singh and expecting to blend this majority-ism with the good governance record and personal charisma of Narendra Modi along with pro-farmer approach of Sushma Swaraj and Rajnath Singh on Land Acquisition Bill, and create an infallible force to win 200 seats in some 545 member Lok Sabha, and then manage to come to power with old (Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, etc) and new (AIADMK, TDP, etc) allies.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Pakistan@2014</strong></p>
<p>
	<img alt="Imran Khan, South Asia" height="242" src="http://www.newbusinessage.com/ckfinder/userfiles/Images/south_asia_May2013_imran_khan.jpg" style="float:left; margin:0 10px 0 0;" width="350" />If you talk to youths on the streets of Karachi or Islamabad, Imran Khan is all set to make a thundering entry into power as the next PM of Pakistan. If you talk to the people in 40s and 50s, they are confused. Surely they expect PPP to be defeated after a spate of poor governance, but Musharraf and Nawaz Sharief battling for the rightist votes will only brighten prospects of PPP unless Imran Khan really makes the tide of the youths into that of the nation.</p>
<p>
	<strong><br />
	</strong></p>
<p>
	<strong>Maldives and Bangladesh@2014</strong></p>
<p>
	Free and fair elections in these countries and tacit role of India may ensure liberal forces of Nausheed in Maldives and Sheikh Haseena in Bangladesh to once again win. However, mobilization of the rural masses and Arabs funded radical Islamic forces may turn the apple-curt and retain power in Male and capture it in Dhaka.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Sri Lanka@2015</strong></p>
<p>
	Given the fact that the army stands solidly behind President Rajapakshye and the international community has limited role in the internal affairs of the island nation, while India’s role is curbed due to growing SL-China relations, the current rulers are expected to bulldoze all opposition and retain power in Colombo whenever the elections are conducted there.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Nepal@2014:</strong></p>
<p>
	The biggest question first is whether the elections will be held, if not in June, at least within November next, and if a popularly elected Constituent Assembly and thereby the government will come to power. Second, if elections are being held, whenever, whether they will be free and fair. Then, after elections, if at all any political force or coalition gets clear majority. Given the situation on ground today, ruling Maoists along with their Madhesi allies may be the largest political bloc, short of majority, while the rest of the opposition, together though a majority, may never come as a single bloc. &nbsp;</p>
<p>
	<strong>Alternative Scenario in South Asia by 2014</strong></p>
<p>
	Politics is the art of the impossible and science of changing human behaviour. So, there could be another scenario, come 2014.</p>
<p>
	Narendra Modi led BJP may enthuse the party and voters in a large number of states partly on development agenda and partly on nationalistic slogans and come to power in India with a clear majority (also with minor support from known allies). Nausheed captures power in Maldives and Haseena retains the same in Bangladesh with clear majority again. A Sinhalese opposition leader (e.g. former army chief Sharath Fonseka) with support of India, Tamils, Muslims and a part of Sinhalese people, captures power in a preponed elections in SL in 2014. Maoists-Madheshis get clear majority in CA and government in Nepal. Imran Khan does the apparently impossible feat of coming to power in Pakistan riding a wave of youth support.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	If this scenario happens and with comfortable majorities in each of these South Asian nations, which is also a probable scenario which, therefore, ensures 5 years of undeterred decision governance, the region may see the realization of its economic potentials.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Economic Potentials</strong></p>
<p>
	India has huge trading potentials in the region, hampered by regional skirmishes and conflicts, which can reduce if the alternative scenario above happens. Look East Policy will help India develop international trade and commerce with Bangladesh, Burma and Nepal to the benefit of all. Destructive competition on jute and agro-based products between India and Bangladesh can be reduced.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Tourism in Maldives and Nepal can get a major fillip with peace and liberal regimes coming in these nations. In fact, Indian tourism has much more potentials with liberal visa regimes with Pakistan and Bangladesh as well.</p>
<p>
	Textiles, automobiles, food-grains et al can be traded cheaper, better, faster within the region with political stability returning. Foreign Direct Investments within the region can sharply increase as well with right welcoming policies in place in these countries.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Movement of students, cheaper educational options in the region, and regional cooperation on skills development will be another major area of development.</p>
<p>
	Energy Security in South Asia is bound to increase with Nepal’s huge hydro-power potentials being realized more and India’s immense solar power possibilities explore further (which anyway is a pet project of Narendra Modi).</p>
<p>
	Indo-Pak economic relations are with immense benefits to both the nations. India gets oil from Iran with stress and high costs due to non-cooperation from Pakistan and Pakistan imports several items of daily use and infra-structural growth from the West at a much higher costs than what it can get from India.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	The entire region needs a tremendous infra-structural push, banking and investments development, rise of social entrepreneurship, and value addition to their agricultural produce. In each of these areas, the South Asian nations have a lot to share if they learn to look at each other positively.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<p>
	Change is the spice of life. Irrespective of whether the status quo looks insurmountable, we must look at possibilities positively. South Asia has one-fifths of the world’s population, rich heritage and is the birth-place of Buddhism, Sikhism, Jainism, Hinduism and various forms of animism. South Asia has world’s largest water-resource, highest peaks, longest coastal range, huge solar power reserves. South Asia’s demographic is the youngest in the world, a large number of them being English educated, IT savvy, secular, and democratic in attitude.</p>
<p>
	Mutually cooperative South Asia has a much larger dividend than the current region marred with conflicts and tensions.</p>
<p>
	<span style="font-size:10px;">The author is former Dean of Symbiosis International University and President of the advisory board at Whistling Woods School of Communication, Mumbai.</span></p>',
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	 </p>
<p>
	<strong>By Prof Ujjwal K Chowdhury</strong></p>
<p>
	The tallest leader in the main opposition party of India, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), today is undoubtedly Narendra Modi. The pressures of the people at the rank and file of the party has already forced the disconnected national leadership to come scurrying to Modi to lead the party at the centre, and soon he will be its Prime Ministerial candidate for the general elections in 2014. As a New Nepal is expected to emerge from the polls of 2013, Indian General Elections of 2014 (which may be earlier than scheduled) may give rise to a New India under Modi, with implications for Nepal as well in South Asia.</p>
<p>
	<img alt="South Asia, New Business Age" height="317" src="http://newbusinessage.com/ckfinder/userfiles/Images/south_asia_april2013_narendra.jpg" style="float:left; margin:0 10px 0 0;" width="350" /></p>
<p>
	<strong>Modi’s Journey: Version 2.0:</strong></p>
<p>
	The journey of this single resolute man at the top of Gujarat’s affairs started as a Pracharak of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) in the first stage of his public life. He was deputed to Gujarat politics to quell the conflict between the Kesubhai Patel and Shankersinh Vaghela factions of BJP some twelve years ago, signalling the start of version 2.0 of his public life.</p>
<p>
	Since then, for a dozen years, he has refrained from going to Delhi much, completely disassociated himself from national politics of BJP and focussed on Gujarat to ensure his third consecutive victory in Gujarat Assembly elections as recently as on December 20, 2012.</p>
<p>
	That he will win the elections for BJP was a foregone conclusion. Question was of the margin. His focus was purely on economic development, and he played it to the hilt, with the glamour of 3D technologies and the force of social media apart from mainstream media.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Presently, Gujarat holds around 30 per cent of India’s stock market capitalisation, contributes 22 per cent of the total exports and about 9.5 per cent of the country’s total work force. Gujarat is also a power surplus state, providing electricity even to the villages.The state has registered more than 12% agriculture growth in the last five years against the national average of 2%.</p>
<p>
	The per capita income at constant prices has shown robust growth in the past five years. There is also a major thrust on infrastructure. The development of ports and port-based investment activity is an instance. There is also a plan for shipbuilding parks along the coastline.</p>
<p>
	Hence, the development slogan, soft Hindutva through Vivekananda Yatra and no tickets to minorities, a techno-savvy one person, one agenda focussed campaign paid off yielding a rich dividend of 115 MLAs for BJP in a House of 182 MLAs.</p>
<p>
	<strong>Modi’s Journey: Version 3.0:&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p>
	<strong>The 10-point Road-map:</strong></p>
<p>
	The most interesting now will be to watch the roadmap that Modi takes in his third and most crucial and challenging phase in public and political life.</p>
<p>
	First, managing home. Gujarat is his home-turf. But now to move to the Centre, he has to leave a legacy that symbolizes him in every sense. Significantly, he has kept his Cabinet small, and has at least two favourites in significant positions for grooming a future CM (and if needed, a Deputy CM too): Saurabh Patel and Anandiben Patel.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Second, managing the Sangh Pariwar. He cannot afford to alienate Nagpur, which still holds a veto power in the Sangh Parivar. As his popularity soars, RSS under Mohan Bhagwat may be left with no choice but rally behind its extra-ordinary Swayamsevak. But Modi would do well to keep Bhagwat in good humour at this stage.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Third, managing the NDA. It is almost certain that JD (United) of Nitish Kumar-Sharad Yadav shall leave NDA if Modi is the front-man. But, Modi has his own dark horses: Jayalalitha led AIADMK, Naveen Patnaik led BJD, Uddhav led Shiv Sena and Raj led MNS in Maharashtra are sure to through their weight behind Modi which will outgrow the strength of JD(U) concentrated in Bihar alone. Interestingly, BS Yediyurappa, the beleaguered rebel BJP leader who has just set up Karnataka Janata Party, may stage a comeback if Modi is the central leader of BJP.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Fourth, managing minorities. What Modi needs to guard is not to create an anti-minority image any further, rather focus on non-appeasement anti-votebank all-people development agenda, being silent on minority-focused discourse in Indian politics in his interests.&nbsp;</p>
<p>
	Fifth, managing the riot-image and legal cases. Herein again, silence is golden. One partial statement after Gujarat victory this time was itself a good strategy, “Forgive me if I have done any mistake”. This is the best policy: being humble but not talking about the past and riots. Vengeance is a measure for lesser mortals.</p>
<p>
	Sixth, creating symbolisms. It will be a great move for Modi to seek election to the Parliament from Lucknow, which elected Atal Behari Vajpayee several times. Symbolically strong, this will rejuvenate BJP in Uttar Pradesh, bring in Kalyan Singh at the centre-stage in UP, and lead to soft Hindutva polarization in favour of BJP in most of the Hindi heartland.</p>
<p>
	Seventh, strengthening mass constituencies. In 2014, the dominant section of the electorate shall be young people below 35 years of age. The electorate between 18 and 35 years of age are expected to be above 40% of the voters, and in case of a good franchise, the younger voters are expected to be participating more. Modi has succeeded tremendously with the youth in Gujarat ensuring a hat-trick of victories. If he can put forth a viable plan for Young India, package and communicate it in a techno-savvy way (for which he is well-known), and make it caste and community-neutral, he is assured of a huge support herein.</p>
<p>
	Eighth, harnessing the woman-power. Half the young people are women, and a large part of elder women are dependent emotionally and financially on the younger population. Also, Modi’s personal charisma, single status, and a straight talking image et al go well with the women. He, however, will need to walk the talk on women’s safety issues which is the major concern for a large number of vocal women,both urban and rural.</p>
<p>
	Ninth, envisioning an Alternative India. Herein lies the major creative challenge to Moditva. If he can change the discourse of Indian politics from divisive identity to development issues, from regional parochialism to a uniform Indian-ness, from Western outlook to political language to a pride in everything Indian, he has made a great start to this third phase in his political journey. He has started this through his recent speeches, first in Sriram College in Delhi and more recently in the India Today Conclave.</p>
<p>
	Tenth, and finally, creating a global image and acceptability. While Vibrant Gujarat has given Modi the global image of a productive performing leader, and Indian diaspora looks up to him for a national leadership role now, he still needs to politically cultivate major global forces and global Indians more. Hence, formal and informal channels need to be evolved through visits, use of media, receiving delegations, use of global Indian bodies, et al, which position Modi as the undisputable leader whom the nation has been waiting for long.</p>
<p>
	<span style="font-size:10px;">The author is former Dean of Symbiosis International University and President of the advisory board at Whistling Woods School of Communication, Mumbai.</span></p>',
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			'keywords' => 'Narendra Modi: Political Journey 3.0 & Message For Nepal',
			'description' => 'The tallest leader in the main opposition party of India, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), today is undoubtedly Narendra Modi. The pressures of the people at the rank and file of the party has already forced the disconnected national leadership to come scurrying to Modi to lead the party at the centre, and soon he will be its Prime Ministerial candidate for the general elections in 2014. As a New Nepal is expected to emerge from the polls of 2013, Indian General Elections of 2014 (which may be earlier than scheduled) may give rise to a New India under Modi, with implications for Nepal as well in South Asia.',
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